Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmeg 252133 
afdmeg

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
333 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Discussion...

At 230 PM, a clear cool late winter day taking place across the
mid-south this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s. For
tonight, a 1025mb surface high pressure will become centered over
the middle Tennessee. Temperatures are expected to fall into the
low to upper 20s areawide under clear skies and nearly calm winds.
This will be the first hard freeze for most of the forecast area
in over a week. The coolest readings will drop into the lower 20s,
especially along the Tennessee River valley.

As the surface anticyclone shifts east on Sunday, surface winds
will quickly turn around to the south and push temperatures back
into the upper 50s during the day. With low relative humidity
values and winds increasing to around 10 knots, an elevated fire
danger will exist across portions of northeast Mississippi and
west Tennessee. Cloud cover is expected to increase by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trof.

By Sunday night, a dry airmass will quickly turn over and rain
chances will ramp up quickly around midnight. Isolated thunder
will be possible as a weak shortwave lifts across the area. By
Monday morning, a warm front near the arklamiss is progged to lift
northward across the mid-south throughout the day. Rain chances
will remain high near the front with scattered thunderstorms
possible during the day.

A broad surface low in the Central Plains is expected to deepen
and traverse to the Great Lakes region on Tuesday afternoon.
Instability will increase substantially during the day as
temperatures rise into the upper 70s and dewpoints climb into the
low to mid 60s. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible much of
the day. By Tuesday night, the main trof will begin to eject from
The Rockies. This wave will begin to overspread eastern Arkansas
late Tuesday night, with the trof acquiring a positive tilt as it
moves into the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday
afternoon.

All the usual suspects for a severe weather event will be in
play during this period including: nicely curved hodographs, bulk
shear values near 60 knots, SBCAPE in excess of 1000 j/kg, and
steep low and mid level lapse rates. Right now, the Storm
Prediction Center has put the eastern part of the mid-south in a
slight risk on Tuesday with the western half outlooked for
Wednesday as well. It's a little too early to sort out exact
details, but all guidance is aligned with at least the potential
for a few severe thunderstorms. Will continue to mention severe
thunderstorms in the hazardous weather outlook for Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

The cold front will push through by late Wednesday, bringing an
end to showers and thunderstorms. A cool night is expected with
lows bottoming out in the 30s by Thursday morning. Benign weather
is expected for Thursday into next weekend. Temperatures will
hover near seasonal values with highs near 60 and lows in the 40s.

Ac3

&&

Aviation...
18z tafs

VFR to prevail through the next 24 hours. Surface high pressure
near dfw at midday will move to near mem by 03z. Surface winds
will lose gust potential by midafternoon, before going calm this
evening.

Low level southeast return flow will commence and strengthen by
15z, as the surface pressure ridge center lifts off to the east,
near tys.

Pwb

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations