Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 171027
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
427 am CST sun Dec 17 2017
Rain is finally falling across the midsouth and plenty more is on
the way over the upcoming work week. The latest 7 day quantitative precipitation forecast graphic
from the wpc shows in excess of 6 inches of rain over a swath of
the midsouth encompassing east central Arkansas and much of north
Mississippi. Rainfall totals over this period taper off to the
north and west but all of the midsouth is likely to see multiple
inches of rain. Guidance continues to trend less favorably for
any freezing or frozen precipitation.
The back edge of the ongoing rainfall is already approaching east
Arkansas and will likely shift across most of the midsouth before
noon today. Precipitable water is in excess of 1 inch resulting in locally heavy
rain. Upstream over central Arkansas...many locations are
reporting rainfall rates between one third and one half of an inch
per hour. Rain may not last very long, but totals may approach an
We will remain under a very progressive pattern over the next week.
The current trough that was previously a cutoff low over west
Mexico will deamplify and quickly move off to the northeast...but
another very similar trough will approach the midsouth midweek.
This system continues to look more robust in model runs. Severe
thunderstorms do not look likely...but we will need to monitor the
threat for localized flooding. Will hold off on including a
flooding threat in the severe weather potential statement since the rain is expected to fall over
several days but it may need to be addressed in upcoming forecast
Friday into next weekend, the third round of rainfall will
approach the midsouth. A full latitude trough will shift out of
the plains Friday night into early Saturday. Rain looks likely
ahead of an accompanying surface cold front. Once again, rain
could be heavy at times...and dependent on how much rain falls
before this system arrives, flooding could become a concern.
Temperatures today through the upcoming work week will be above
normal...warmest Monday and Tuesday when highs will be in the
middle to upper 60s. Much colder air is expected to arrive next
weekend behind a strong cold front. As is typical here in the
midsouth...moisture should exit before the colder air moves in.
Highs next Saturday are expected to be in the 40s.
Rain showers continue to spread east across Arkansas this evening and
will affect pretty much all of the mid-south overnight and Sunday
morning. VFR conditions will prevail through 12z in most areas
with ceilings quickly lowering as the column moistens from the top
down. IFR conditions are expected in many areas for a few hours
Sunday morning with slowly improving conditions through the
afternoon hours. That said, ceilings are likely to remain near or
below 2500 ft. Winds will be generally from the south and
southeast at under 8 kts.