Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 281123
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
623 am CDT Wed Jun 28 2017
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 324 am CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/
At 3 am CDT around the mid-south, surface high pressure has
exercised its influence on the region, as conditions are currently
calm under clear skies with temperatures generally in the mid to
upper 60s. The latest surface analysis centers this high roughly
over West Virginia, with much of eastern Continental U.S. Under its
influence. Meanwhile, latest 500 mb analysis extends a trough axis
from eastern Canada southward along the East Coast. Slight upper
ridging is evident to the west of the local region, with resultant
northwest flow currently in place over the mid-south.
Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry and pleasant for
Wednesday, with highs this afternoon warming into the upper 80s
under sunny skies. The surface high will begin to migrate eastward
today, allowing winds to become more southerly. Conditions will
become more humid as a result, and even more so on Thursday as low
level moisture advection enhances. This will allow for chances of
afternoon convection, primarily across northern Mississippi, on
Better chances for afternoon convection areawide on Friday as
southwesterly flow sets up aloft out ahead of a shortwave trough.
Afternoon highs Thursday and Friday will continue in the mid to
upper 80s, while overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. The best
chance for convection will enter the region late on Friday and
into Saturday as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest.
Models have trended a bit drier with this feature, but given its
location ahead of an upper trough, still feel as though much of
the region will experience precipitation on Friday and Saturday.
Unsettled weather conditions will continue late in the weekend
and the first half of next week as the flow aloft becomes more
zonal, supporting chances of showers and thunderstorms as weak
impulses transit over the region. Temperatures to begin the week
will be just below normal for late June and early July.
VFR conditions will prevail through today and this evening. Lower
stratus will likely develop late tonight with the potential for
MVFR cigs for a few hours prior to sunrise Thursday morning.
Winds will pick up from the south today between 6-12 kts, with
higher gusts possible at kjbr. Southerly winds will continue
tonight between 5-8 kts.