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fxus64 kmeg 290211 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
911 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017


Skies are partly cloudy over northern sections of the forecast
area with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Temperatures this evening
range from the upper 60s to around 80 degrees. Frontal boundary
extends across southern Oklahoma through northeast Arkansas and
into souther Indiana. A few showers are found north of this
boundary across Lawrence County in northeast Arkansas. A few
thunderstorms may move across mainly far northern sections of
forecast area but the majority of activity should remain north of
the forecast area. Made some minor adjustments to the forecast.



Previous discussion... /issued 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/


Current conditions across the now warm-sectored midsouth are
generally cloudy to mostly cloudy with a few light sprinkles
forming along in the far north. Winds were mainly from the south
and breezy...with temperatures this hour ranging from the upper
60s in Paris Tennessee to the mid 80s in north Mississippi.

For tonight...a well capped atmosphere will keep the region dry
for the most part...especially in the southern half. The only
exception for the overnight hours will be across the far north
near a stalled out warm front in southern Missouri and the lower
Ohio Valley. Given the Thermo and dynamic environments these
surface-based storms if they form would be severe. Winds will
continue to be breezy overnight with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

Saturday and Sunday...developing storm ejecting out of the
southern rockies will allow for a deepening upper trough to
cross the plains this period...with the combination of better
severe weather chances and flash flooding. Rainfall amounts appear
best in the north and west overall with 4 to 5 inch totals. This
threat may transition eastward on Sunday as the GFS and European model (ecmwf) 12z
runs is starting to slow things down a tad more as the upper low
lifts into the Midwest. Subtle height falls with the current
shortwave in Arizona rounding the base may trigger a conditional
severe weather threat west of the Mississippi River tomorrow
afternoon and evening. The given wind field and projected cape
values above 3000 j/kg would trend to all severe hazards. More
activity lifting out of the arklatex will arrive late tomorrow
night with Sunday being the better day for severe storms ahead of
the approaching cold front. By this time directional shear will be
more linear contributing to a greater straight line wind
hazard...especially in the east where instability will be greatest
during the mid to late afternoon. Rain and will end from west to
east Sunday night.

Monday and Tuesday...surface high pressure will provide for a cool
and drier start to the first week of may...with high temperatures
dropping into the 60s and 70s...and lows into the 40s and 50s.
Breezy west winds on Monday will diminish from the south Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...a new digging midlevel shortwave from
the northern plains will bring more clouds and a threat of rain to
the region for the middle of the week. Instability appears more
limited from the models and confined to the southeast counties.



/00z tafs/

VFR conditions will prevail this evening, but MVFR ceilings will
return tonight between 06-09z and continue through much of
Saturday morning. There is a low potential for brief IFR ceilings,
but confidence is too low to mention at this point. Expect south
winds to continue through the taf period, becoming gusty at times
tonight. Windy conditions are anticipated on Saturday, with gusts
exceeding 30 kts at times. Finally, isolated storms will be
possible this evening, but coverage should be quite limited owing
to the strong cap. Thus, no thunder will be included at this time.



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...Wind Advisory from 9 am to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Clay-Craighead-
Crittenden-cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee Arkansas-Mississippi-
Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee Arkansas-
Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 am to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Dunklin-

Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Advisory from 9 am to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Coahoma-DeSoto-

Tennessee...Wind Advisory from 9 am to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Dyer-Lake-

Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Dyer-Lake-Obion.

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