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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1132 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Discussion...
updated for 06z aviation discussion.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 620 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016/

Discussion...
updated for 00z aviation discussion.

Previous discussion... /issued 319 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016/

Discussion...

Currently...as of 3pm, knqa radar scans currently depict ongoing
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity mainly in north
Mississippi with more isolated showers and storms present
elsewhere. Expect increasing coverage of storms until near 00z. The
main threat with any storm this afternoon will be brief heavy
rainfall. Temperatures vary throughout the mid-south this
afternoon with highs reaching the lower 90's in north eastern
Arkansas where there is less cloud cover,to the mid to lower 80s
in the southern sections of our coverage area where cloud cover
and storms exist. Winds are light and mainly from the south.

Short term...
expect a brief decrease in shower and storm activity late this
evening. However, storm chances will increase again overnight
mainly in the northern sections of the mid-south as a disturbance
embedded in northwest flow aloft approaches the region. Chances
for thunderstorms will also exist during the day tomorrow as
several more shortwave disturbances move through the lower
Mississippi River valley region. Lower level southerly flow will
continue to pull moist air into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitable water values will range from 1.75 to 2.4 inches. Some strong
storms may be possible tomorrow, especially if we get significant
enough clearing to allow for atmospheric destabilization ahead of
one of the aforementioned disturbances. Cape values will range
from 2500-3200 j/kg with low level lapse rates ranging form 7-8
c/km. However, limited amounts of shear should result in storms
remaining sub-severe. The main threat with any storms tomorrow
will be flash flooding. A similar weather pattern will remain for
the weekend as an upper level trough remains parked over the
eastern half of the United States resulting in several
disturbances embedded in upper northwest flow impacting our region
increasing the chances of storms for Saturday and Sunday.

Long term...

Models begin to fall out of agreement early next week with the
Euro building an upper ridge over the region slightly earlier
than the GFS. Monday may be wet depending on the timing of the
ridge. Anyways, both models agree on the broad upper ridge
developing over the region by mid-week next week. This will result
in a return to hot conditions with heat index values approaching
or exceeding heat advisory criteria from mid week into the
weekend.

&&

Aviation...
06z tafs

Convection will continue at all sites this period. Tricky on
exact timing but it appears to be in the short term/overnight
with a break during the mid morning/mid afternoon. Then a second
round will occur late afternoon and into the evening. For now have
left a thunderstorms in the vicinity in at mem and mkl for the morning round. IFR/MVFR
stratus/fog will affect the sites during the first half of the
cycle with generally VFR weather arriving in the second half.
Light winds will become southwest/west at 6-9 kts. However winds
are expected to be stronger in convection.

Jab

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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