Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 202335
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
535 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
updated to include the 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 244 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/
Temperatures have warmed up nicely across portions of northeast
Mississippi and southwest Tennessee this afternoon. Current
temperatures are in the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile, snowpack
continues to hinder temperatures across portions of east Arkansas,
the Missouri bootheel, and northwest Tennessee where current
readings are in the mid to upper 40s. Clouds continue to stream
northward across much of the area. In addition, a few showers
continue to move northward along the Mississippi River near west
central Mississippi and northeast Louisiana.
Tonight into Sunday...some of these showers may impact portions
of northwest Mississippi, east Arkansas, west Tennessee, and the
Missouri bootheel. Clouds will stick around much of the area
through the day on Sunday. Southerly winds will also continue
across the area which should help temperatures warm an additional
10 degrees on Sunday.
A cold front will approach the mid-south Sunday night. A line of
showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop along
the front Sunday afternoon across western Arkansas. The line is
expected to be pushing into Randolph County, Arkansas around
midnight, crossing the MS river by 3 am, and be located roughly
from Jackson, Tennessee to Oxford, MS by 6am. The surface low associated
with the cold front will be occluding by the time the line pushes
into eastern Arkansas thus pinching off the warm sector. As a
result, best chances for thunderstorms will occur over eastern
Arkansas, but expect by the time the line reaches the MS river
thunder chances will be diminishing due to the loss of
instability. Can't rule out an isolated strong storm initially as
the line moves into eastern Arkansas. Strong gradient winds will
occur ahead of the front. A Wind Advisory may become necessary
Colder air will filter into the mid-south by Monday afternoon and
evening as Arctic air gets pulled into the area on the backside of
the departing upper low. Temperatures may fall into the upper 40s
during the afternoon hours on Monday across northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri bootheel.
Temperatures will moderate quickly and by Tuesday expect
seasonable temperatures to occur that will continue through the
week as tranquil weather conditions occur across the mid-south.
Another upper trof will dig into the plains by late in the week
which will begin to bring chances for rain to the mid-south late
Friday night into Saturday.
Ceilings around 2500-3500 ft will gradually lower tonight,
especially in the vicinity of kjbr where IFR conditions are
possible by sunrise. Patchy drizzle and a few passing showers are
possible but should be temporally limited. Expect MVFR conditions
elsewhere late tonight, except in ktup where VFR conditions are
likely to prevail. South winds will persist through the night,
generally remaining between 8-12 kts. Some areas may experience
gusts approaching 20 kts Sunday afternoon with wind speeds likely
increasing during the evening hours.