Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 240428
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1128 PM CDT sun Apr 23 2017
Updated for aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 1008 PM CDT sun Apr 23 2017/
An upper level low pressure system remains located across middle
Tennessee this evening. Clouds associated with the upper level low
cover much of west Tennessee and north Mississippi. In addition,
showers and patchy drizzle continue near the Tennessee River and
northeast Mississippi. Models show the back edge of the clouds
stalling out over the next couple of hours and then retrograding
westward to the MS river as the upper level low begins to shift to
the south. Have already adjusted cloud cover to account for this,
but will update to keep chances for showers and drizzle going for
eastern areas of the mid-south through the overnight hours. Rest
of forecast looks good.
Discussion... /issued 302 PM CDT sun Apr 23 2017/
Skies remain cloudy from roughly the Mississippi River eastward
with sunny skies over the remainder of the forecast area.
Temperatures this afternoon range from the upper 40s to around 70
degrees. Light rain continues to fall over portions of west
Tennessee at this time. The clouds and rain are associated with an
upper level low which moved across west Tennessee this morning.
The upper level low will continue to move southeast and each
northern Alabama tonight. This will allow clouds to decrease from
west to east across the forecast area tonight. Some light rain
will still be possible tonight over the eastern half of the
forecast area. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with lows
Monday morning in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.
By Monday morning, the upper low should be over western Georgia so
most of the clouds and rain will be gone. Surface high pressure
will be over western Arkansas which keep things dry for Monday and
Tuesday. Temperatures will warm up some on Monday and Tuesday with
most locations seeing highs on Tuesday around 80 degrees.
On Wednesday, a cold front will be moving out of the Southern
Plains and into western Arkansas. Thunderstorms will develop ahead
of the front and move across the forecast area. Some of the
thunderstorms may become severe mainly over eastern Arkansas. The
cold front will move into the forecast area on Wednesday night
with more thunderstorms expected. Some of the thunderstorms could
be severe as well.
The cold front should move out of the region by Thursday morning
with some showers possible over eastern sections of the forecast
area. By Thursday night, the cold front stalls out over central
Mississippi and will start to move back slowly north as a warm
front. This will result in a return of thunderstorms for much of
the forecast area starting Thursday night and continuing into
Next weekend looks to be warm and unsettled with a warm front to
our north and a cold front slow moving east toward the forecast
area. This will mean there will be periods of thunderstorms from
Friday night through next Sunday. Some of the thunderstorms may be
severe as well.
The upper low over southern middle Tennessee/northern Alabama will move
southeast over the next 24 hours. VFR conds will prevail and kjbr and
kmem. However, cyclonic flow continues over the eastern portion
on the forecast area and clouds will be slower to completely clear.
Expect low clouds to move back in from the east later tonight and
continue into Monday. Both sites should scattered out Monday
afternoon as the upper low tracks further away, the cyclonic flow
weakens and a shortwave ridge builds in. Expect light north winds