Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmeg 231130 
afdmeg

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
630 am CDT sun Jul 23 2017

Discussion...
updated for 12z aviation discussion.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 352 am CDT sun Jul 23 2017/

Discussion...
unsettled weather pattern this week with hot temperatures
continuing through the week. However, we should get some relief
early this week as a frontal system drops across the mid-south on
Monday bringing with it some clouds and rain.

Each day this week there is a chance of rain in the mid-south as
either frontal systems move across the area or afternoon and
evening thunderstorms develop under a high pressure system.

Temperatures and humidity on Sunday continue to be high resulting
in heat index values from 104 to 109 degrees across the mid-south.
On Monday, it looks like we get a little relief, however, some
places will flirt with 105. The clouds and precipitation will
determine the rest of the week as it looks like we might return to
heat advisory criteria in the middle of the week, however, only
going to issue the advisory for today. Other days this week, there
are too many things that must occur to get the heat index values
above 105.

A good frontal system will move into the region Friday, bringing
rain Friday into Saturday along with cooler temperatures. With
both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) dropping the 850 mb temperatures by almost
10 degrees celsius by next weekend.

Tlsjr/csc

&&

Aviation...
12z tafs

VFR this period outside of convection...which will be affecting
the sites during the latter half. Coverage will be scattered but
enough confidence for on station activity. Generally southwest
winds at 6-10kts...with higher wind and wind gusts during storms.
Few to scattered stratus deck forming late.

Jab

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
Crittenden-cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee Arkansas-Mississippi-
Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

Tennessee...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-
Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations