Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 241719
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1119 am CST Fri Nov 24 2017
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 500 am CST Fri Nov 24 2017/
Unseasonably dry conditions to continue into the early part of
next week, with slightly above normal daytime temps.
As in previous days, northwest flow aloft will prevail today.
Slightly stronger low level return flow will develop west of the
MS river, ahead of low amplitude midlevel trof. Dewpoints will
be slower to recover today east of the river, where return flow is
The aforementioned midlevel trof and associated surface cold
front will pass through the midsouth on Saturday. Given limited
moisture below 700 mb, surface rain coverage will likely be limited
to isolated areas of sprinkles. Sunday's temps will only cool
modestly, still averaging 3-5 degrees above normal, in the
Pacific origin airmass.
Today's 00z medium range models showed modestly improved agreement
with respect to an upper trof/closed low passage during the
middle of next week. The consensus appears have tightened slightly
toward slower European model (ecmwf) solutions, particularly when the GFS ensembles
are considered. The net result is a delayed introduction of mentionable
rain chances on Wednesday, ending with the passage of cold front
late Thursday. Upper level ridging then appears likely to edge in
from the Southern Plains, pointing toward mild and dry conditions
for the first weekend of December.
VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period. There
will likely be an increase in mid cloud cover and isolated showers
late tonight into Saturday morning.
Southerly winds between 8-10 kts will gradually diminish this
evening. A front will move through Saturday morning with a switch
to northerly winds between 8-10 kts.