Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 270436
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1136 PM CDT Fri may 26 2017
Updated for aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 257 PM CDT Fri may 26 2017/
Skies are mostly sunny across the eastern half of the forecast
area with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Temperatures this
afternoon range from the mid 70s to mid 80s. A cold front
currently extends from southeast Iowa through southwest Missouri
and into northwest Texas.
The front will drop slowly south tonight into southern Missouri.
Some thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front and
may reach western sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will
be on the warm side with lows Saturday morning from the upper 60s
to lower 70s.
On Saturday, low pressure will develop along the front over
western Kansas and move east. This low will push the front north
some but will remain close enough that some thunderstorms that
form could make their way into the forecast area. Temperatures
will be quite warm on Saturday with highs in the mid 80s. By
Saturday night, the cold front will start to move toward the
region so there will be a better chance of thunderstorms. There
may be some severe thunderstorms late Saturday night and early
Sunday morning especially over northern sections of the forecast
area. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail.
Temperatures will remain warm with lows Sunday morning in the
lower 70s. The cold front will move into the forecast area on
Sunday with more thunderstorms expected. A strong to severe
thunderstorm will be possible on Sunday south of the cold front.
Temperatures will remain quite warm with highs in the low to mid
80s. The front will continue to move through the forecast area
Sunday night with more thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will
turn a little cooler behind the front with lows Monday morning
mainly in the 60s.
The cold front will finally move out of the forecast area on
Monday with thunderstorms still possible over portions of north
Mississippi. By Monday night, the front will be south of the
region but a thunderstorm could be possible over extreme southern
sections of the forecast area. High pressure will briefly build
into the region by Tuesday bringing a brief period of dry weather
for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The cold front will slowly return back as a warm front on
Wednesday and Thursday and move through the region by next Friday.
This will produce scattered thunderstorms each day. Temperatures
will remain close to normal levels for the extended period from
Memorial Day through next Friday.
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the overnight before
low clouds develop toward sunrise and continue into Saturday
morning. Latest guidance points toward the possibility of sct
shras/tsras during the 10z-18z time frame so included a thunderstorms in the vicinity for
that time period at kjbr, kmem and kmkl. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR by Saturday afternoon. Next concern is a line of
thunderstorms that will likely be entering the forecast area
toward the end of the period. South-southwest winds at 7-9 kts will increase
to 10-15 kts Saturday morning with higher gusts.