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fxus64 kmeg 231138 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
538 am CST Thu Feb 23 2017

updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.


Previous discussion... /issued 231 am CST Thu Feb 23 2017/


Patchy fog is developing over the mid-south this morning. Thus
far, the fog has not become dense. Will monitor for a potential
dense fog advisory through sunrise in case the fog thickens.

After sunrise, southerly winds will begin to increase across the
area allowing fog to quickly lift. The increasing southerly winds
and strong warm air advection will provide another day of
potential record breaking warmth. Highs will range from the mid
70s to around 80 degrees.

A cold front will move into the mid-south late Friday afternoon
into Friday evening. Models continue to show only isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front
with best chances occurring over northwest Tennessee around
sunset. The thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential
to become severe across areas of west Tennessee near the Tennessee
River due being closer proximity to the surface low over the Ohio
Valley and the upper level dynamics. Damaging winds would be the
main threat. Colder air will filter into the area behind the

Cool high pressure will build over the mid-south Saturday into
Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 40s to
the mid 50s while lows Saturday night may drop to freezing for the
first time since the 16th.

The high will shift east on Sunday allowing for winds to turn
around to the south providing a gradual warming trend. A warm
front will move northward Sunday night into Monday. Models are in
pretty good agreement through Sunday night. Widespread showers
will develop across the area Sunday evening.

Monday and beyond, the models begin to diverge on solutions. The
European model (ecmwf) pushes the warm front to western Kentucky by Monday
afternoon. The model shows the region staying underneath warm
southerly flow until Wednesday when the model brings the next cold
front through the area. With this solution, temperatures would be
above normal with chances for showers and thunderstorms occurring
through the period. Meanwhile, the GFS brings a cold front
through the area on Monday and then stalls the front across
central Mississippi Monday night into Tuesday. The model then
brings the front back northward as a warm front Tuesday night
before shifting back southward as a cold front on Wednesday. With
this solution, chances for showers would linger possibly across
north Mississippi Monday night through Tuesday before spreading
back northward across the entire area Tuesday night. Temperatures
would be as much as 10 degrees cooler than the European model (ecmwf) as surface
winds would be out of the north. For now have leaned toward the
European model (ecmwf) as it has remained consistent with the solution for the
Monday night through Wednesday time frame for at least the last 48



/12z tafs/

Areas of fog have developed across much of the mid-south, reducing
visibility to less than 1/2 mile at times at both kjbr and ktup.
This will continue through roughly 15z with gradually improving
conditions during the remainder of the morning hours. A few hours
of reduced visibility will be possible at kmkl after sunrise, and
there is only a low potential of an MVFR cloud deck affecting
kmem briefly this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions this
afternoon with southerly winds increasing to 10-15 kts. Gusts
along and west of the Mississippi River near or greater than 20
kts are expected. A strengthening low-level jet will result in
low-level wind shear across much of the area overnight. The
attendant southerly winds at or above 10 kts will maintain south
Ops at kmem overnight.



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for Clay-
Craighead-Crittenden-cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee Arkansas-
Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for Dunklin-

MS...dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for Alcorn-Benton

Tennessee...dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for Benton Tennessee-

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