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fxus64 kmeg 192327 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
627 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017


Updated for the 00z aviation discussion


Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/


High pressure remains in control of the current midsouth weather
with light south winds running temperatures in the mid and upper
70s...about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Humidity was
comfortable...ranging from 35 to 50 percent.

For tonight and tomorrow...surface high pressure over the
Carolinas will continue the mild Fall weather for the midsouth over
the next 36 hours...with cool mornings warming to near 80 by
mid-afternoon. Winds will remain southeasterly at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday through Monday...slight forecast changes were needed this
period. The current trough vastly approaching the Pacific
northwest is expected to phase up with a slower and weaker trough
over the southern rockies early Saturday morning. South winds will
increase over the area...along with a slow increase in Gulf
moisture. A few warm air advection showers will be possible early on but the
brunt of the rainfall associated with the trough and an
approaching cold front will arrive after midnight Saturday
night...and throughout the day on Sunday. The plume of Gulf air
will slowly get pinched off as the front tracks through the region
leading to the best instability across areas south of Jonesboro
and west of I-55. Li's in this region will dip to -3c with cape
amounts of between 500-1000 j/kg. Plan on introducing a strong
thunderstorm risk for this area in today's severe weather potential statement. Elsewhere embedded
thunder and widespread showers will bring most locations about an
inch of precipitation. Later on Sunday both the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
show the northern end of the upper trough outrunning the southern
end forcing a closed 500mb low circulation to form somewhere over
our area. This should keep spotty showers and significant cloud
cover over a majority of the region through Monday and potentially
into Monday night. So changes this period included slightly
warmer temperatures Saturday...a chance for a few strong storms on
Sunday...and a drop in high temperatures in the east for Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...lower upper level heights will
dominate this period with a reinforcing cold front expected late
Tuesday night. The Canadian airmass behind this boundary will be
the coldest this fall season...dropping morning lows into the mid
30s across the east. Patchy frost is anticipated...with an
advisory not out of the question. Highs will be mainly in the
upper 50s to mid 60s...with dry weather prevailing.



00z taf cycle

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the entire forecast
period. Winds should be mainly from the south at around 5 knots
for much of the forecast period.



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...

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