Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
330 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016
A mid level shear axis remains stretched across the northwestern
portions of the mid south this afternoon and this feature will move
very little over the next couple of days. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed this afternoon near this axis but
there should be a reduction in overall coverage by later this
evening. Heat index values have neared advisory levels this
afternoon but with convective potential highest in areas with the
highest heat index values...plan to hold off on a heat advisory.
Heat indices should come down early this evening as locations get
impacted by convection or convective outflow.
The mid level shear axis to the northwest should remain in place
on Tuesday with additional storm chances...maximized
diurnally...again occurring over northwest sections of the
forecast area. In addition...there will likely be an increase in
coverage across southern sections as well by Tuesday afternoon as
a tropical disturbance lifts northward from the Gulf Coast with
deeper Gulf moisture. High temperatures should again reach into
the lower 90s with high dewpoints. Heat index values may again
approach advisory levels prior to convection. Plan to hold off on
any headlines due to uncertainty associated with convection and
impacts on temperatures. This will need to be monitored by later
The tropical disturbance should merge with a northern stream
shortwave slowly digging into the area from the northwest. Deep
tropical moisture should be in place along with enhanced lift.
This should result in higher coverage of convection beginning
Wednesday and continuing through the remainder of the week.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected during this
period across much of the region. Periods of heavy rainfall will
also be possible as deep tropical moisture remains in place. High
temperatures should remain lower than seasonal averages with above
average overnight lows expected in the tropical airmass.
Upper troughing persists across the mid south through next weekend
with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms along with
near or slightly below average high temperatures and above average
The troughing should lift out by early next week with building
heights aloft. This should lead to drier weather conditions and
hotter temperatures by the end of the forecast period and beyond.
VFR conds expected outside of tsras/shras. A weak disturbance
across the area will result in scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain showers for
kjbr...kmem and kmkl this afternoon. Outside of storms expect
S/SW winds up to 10 kts this afternoon diminishing to less than 5
kts this evening. Convection should die off with loss of heating.