Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1208 am CDT Friday Aug 26 2016
Updated for the 06z taf cycle
Previous discussion... /issued 950 PM CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016/
Upper ridge centered over east Tennessee this evening. Storms have
dissipated across the mid-south leaving behind high clouds across
the western half of the area and some patchy light fog. Expect
the remainder of the night to be rain free with storms remaining
west of the area. Temps will be mild with lows in the 70s. Update
Previous discussion... /issued 225 PM CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016/
Showers and few thunderstorms were dotting the midsouth landscape
this afternoon...with the best concentration in a zone along I-40.
The strongest of storms were capable of 40mph winds...small hail
and rainfall amounts around an inch. Temperatures in between the
convective activity have reached the low and mid 90s for most
folks...with a current heat index of 107f in Memphis. A heat
advisory remains in effect until 7pm this evening for the Delta.
For tonight through Sunday...not much forecast change expected
this period. Short term model solutions indicate the midsouth
remaining just on the west side of an upper ridge with moisture
and few embedded disturbances riding up the lower Mississippi
Valley and the Ozarks. Isolated convection may be ongoing west of
the Mississippi River tonight as the upper level plume retrogrades
a bit westward...otherwise partial clearing will allow for patchy
fog to form...especially over areas receiving the recent rainfall.
Tomorrow convective coverage will increase by late morning and
expand eastward. Though an isolated strong storm may form...no
severe weather is anticipated. Heavy downpours will briefly
reduce visibilities for travelers. Additional midlevel cloud cover
will help to keep high temperatures a couple of degrees
cooler...so a second day for a heat advisory remains questionable.
Lows tonight and Friday night will be in the 70s. Later this
weekend better rain chances will begin shifting to the northern
counties as the geostrophic flow backs more southeasterly across
Monday through next Thursday...models are in good agreement that
the upper level ridge will shift northeast into the mid-Atlantic
states with an east west axis staying north of the midsouth. This
will in turn keep a greater depth of drier easterly flow over the
region...with convection becoming more widely isolated and
diurnal. High temperatures for now appear to be slightly above
normal...but the drier boundary layer will keep afternoon heat
indices below 105f. If a tropical system can organize in the Gulf
of Mexico...subsidence out ahead of the feature could raise
temperatures into the mid and upper 90s by midweek.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will prevail for much of the forecast period. Some
fog is possible to develop overnight mainly over the kmkl area.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop late Friday morning and into
Friday afternoon. Winds will be mainly from the southeast at around
5 knots for much of the forecast period.