Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmeg 300811 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
311 am CDT Thu Mar 30 2017


Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over eastern Louisiana and
central Mississippi has killed severe thunderstorm chances across
the mid-south thus far. Although have seen strong 40-50 knots gusts
with showers over portions of the County Warning Area thanks to the strong low
level jet that is occurring over the mid-south at this time. The
jet is forecast to remain strong through the morning hours thus
the threat for strong winds will continue across the area. Best
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over
northeast Mississippi and portions of eastern Arkansas through

Short term models are in pretty good agreement that redevelopment
of thunderstorms will occur along the cold front roughly around
1-2 PM CDT. The front will roughly be located along the
Mississippi River at that time. Storms should become severe
rather quickly as the atmosphere remains unstable especially
across areas of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River as these
locations have been affected by little shower and thunderstorm
activity. The storms will be capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The storms will
eventually evolve into a line of showers and thunderstorms by the
time the line moves into northeast Mississippi. The line is
expected to move out of the mid-south by 8 to 10 PM CDT ending the
threat for severe storms.

Quiet weather will occur across the region from Friday into
Saturday as an upper ridge begins to move over the area. The next
chance for showers and thunderstorms may begin to occur as early
as late Saturday night as a warm front associated with the next
low pressure system begins to lift northward over the area. Models
diverge on timing of the system by Sunday as the GFS is much
faster bringing the the system into the region. Models also differ
on evolution as well. For now have the best chances for showers
and thunderstorms from Sunday night into Monday. Depending on the
exact track of the surface low, there could be some potential for
severe storms with this system as well. Stay tuned to the latest
forecasts for updates.

That system will quickly be followed by another cold front that
will move through the region on Wednesday and will bring
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms as well.




Not much change from 00z thinking...with just a small adjustment
in timing. Showers/thunderstorms will pass through all the sites
over the next 18 hours with the potential fro stronger storms at
tup and mkl. Conditions will drop briefly to IFR in heaviest
convection with VFR and MVFR cigs outside of precipitation.
Southeast/south winds will become gusty veering southwesterly
behind a weak cold front. Winds will diminish some late.



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations