Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 150510 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1110 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 .UPDATE... Updated to include 06Z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 941 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/ UPDATE... Midevening temps prevailed in the 30s across the Midsouth, ranging from near 30 near the TN/KY border, to near 40 south of Oxford MS. Extensive high clouds, associated with the subtropical jet will likely be met, at least partially, by low/mid clouds dropping slowly south from KY. Overnight cooldown will likely be tempered a bit by clouds, but still prevailing below freezing in most areas prior to sunrise. Current forecast remains on track. PWB PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/ UPDATE... Updated to include 00Z Aviation Discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/ DISCUSSION... Today was a chillier day across the Mid-South thanks to the cold front that moved through last night. Temperatures south of the MS/TN border are in the 50s while areas to the north are much cooler thanks to some strato-cumulus clouds. Temperatures range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s in areas affected by the clouds. Tonight, colder air will continue to filter into the region. However, clouds will continue to skirt Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee through the night while some cirrus will skirt portions of North Mississippi. Thus the coldest temperatures may occur along the I-40 corridor where conditions should remain mostly clear. Expect lows to range from the mid 20s near Jackson to around 30 degrees in Northeast Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi. Friday will be another chilly day across the area as SFC high pressure settles over the region. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s. Winds will begin to turn around to the south by Friday Night into Saturday as high pressure shifts off to the east. As a result, expect warmer temperatures to occur across the area. Lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s but will quickly warm into the mid to upper 50s by Saturday afternoon. An overrunning pattern will set up over the Mid-South late Saturday Night into Sunday as a SFC low develops along the Gulf Coast. Rain will spread into the area after midnight Saturday Night. Rain will occur across the entire area through at least 9 AM. Thereafter rain will begin to taper off from west to east ending in the Memphis Metro area by noon as the SFC low moves east. Another SFC low may bring rain into the area late Monday into Monday Night with best chances occurring across Northeast Mississippi where a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible as well. Another cold front will then move through the area on Tuesday continuing small chances for rain. However, not much of a cool down will occur with this front. Overall temperatures will be above normal with highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s from Monday through Thursday of next week. Enjoy the warmth as models are indicating cold air will return in time for the Christmas holiday. KRM && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs VFR conditions expected through the period. Light winds will increase to 6-8 kts on Friday and become light by Friday evening. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None.