Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 201110
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
610 am CDT Thu Jul 20 2017
Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/
hot hot hot! The heat and humidity will continue through at least
Friday also dry conditions will remain to with the exception of
the extreme southeast part of the forecast area where there is a
slight chance of some precipitation during the afternoon today and
tomorrow. This is due to an upper level disturbance moving west
along the Gulf Coast, which is allowing more moisture at all
levels to be pushed into the area.
The high pressure currently over the mid-south will weaken over
the weekend along a frontal system moving toward the area from the
Great Plains and an upper level disturbance along the Gulf Coast.
These will combine to allow for a more unsettled weather over the
weekend including precipitation.
Early next week the frontal system moves through the area allowing
for more precipitation, however, the frontal system is different
in many of the models. Yet we should have some chance for
thunderstorms for much of the mid-south from Sunday through
Tuesday. For the rest of the forecast air mass thunderstorms are
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the upper 90s and with
dew points in the mid 70s the heat index values will be 105 to 109
across the mid-south. The heat advisory has been expanded for the
entire County Warning Area for today. Also continued the heat
advisory into Friday with the exception of northeast Mississippi
as not confident enough that heat index values will reach above
105 Friday afternoon.
Aviation...12z taf cycle
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Morning
light fog at mkl should dissipate shortly. Isolated afternoon
showers are possible with the highest coverage in north MS. Winds
generally from the west at or below 6kt diminishing after sunset.
Patchy fog is expected again late tonight.
Arkansas...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Clay-Craighead-
MO...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-
Heat advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lee MS-Monroe-
Tennessee...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-