Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
936 am CDT Friday Jul 29 2016
Low overcast clouds currently cover about 2/3 of the mid-south.
Temperatures throughout the region are near 80 degrees as 0f 9:30
am. Expect temperatures to continue to increase as cloud cover
lessens.The current forecast is on track and only minor tweaks
were needed. Lowered pops before 00z based on current trends and
solutions depicted by short term models. Still expect thunderstorm
coverage to increase this afternoon with some strong storms
Previous discussion... /issued 637 am CDT Friday Jul 29 2016/
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 319 am CDT Friday Jul 29 2016/
the current weather pattern looks to persist through the weekend,
resulting in unsettled weather across the mid-south. A broad
ridge extends from the Desert Southwest, eastward into the
southeast conus, interrupted by a weakness in the height field
over the lower Mississippi Valley. A series of shortwave troughs
will ridge in a general eastward direction over the ridge,
providing episodes of enhanced large scale forcing for ascent and
cooler temps aloft.
This will spell scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
region, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s today,
yielding MLCAPE values on the order of 2000 j/kg. There is a
marginal risk of severe weather along/north of I-40 this afternoon
where there looks to be just enough deep layer shear to support
multicellular convection capable of producing damaging winds.
Otherwise, we anticipate disorganized pulse convection with wet
microburst potential. The other concern will be locally heavy
rainfall. Moisture isn't as deep as we have seen the past few
days, with precipitable water values closer to climatology. We do,
however, expected efficient warm rain processes given the height
of the freezing level and storm motions won't be very fast.
Convection is forecast to weaken by sunset, decreasing in
coverage and intensity.
Similar conditions are expected this weekend, with convection
being largely diurnally driven. That said, a subtle shortwave
trough embedded in the westerlies could also produce scattered
nocturnal convection, so pops will persist through the overnight
hours. Again, expect highs this weekend around 90 degrees with
lows in the low/mid 70s.
The ridge is progged to build farther north and east as we move
into next week. This will result in a decrease in rain chances,
although there should remain sufficient moisture to sustain at
least a slight chance each afternoon. High temperatures will climb
into the low/mid 90s with heat indices approaching 105 degrees in
some areas by Tuesday. We'll continue with the hot/muggy weather
through the end of next week with diurnal convection possible each
12z taf cycle
Low clouds will remain over most of the forecast area this morning
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR levels by this afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the late this
afternoon and this evening with most of the activity ending before
midnight. Most areas should see VFR conditions overnight. Winds
will be mainly from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots for most of the