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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
626 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018



VFR with a S to SW wind through the evening. Wind gusts should
drop off most locations after sunset and pick up again by midday


Previous discussion... /issued 313 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018/


An upper trough is over the East Coast and weak ridging is over the
Desert Southwest. Temperatures will be on a warming trend today with
southerly winds across the County Warning Area and a surface trough across the
higher terrain. This warming trend will continue into Friday as the
upper ridge moves over the central conus with an upper trough moving
over the West Coast. The surface winds on Thursday will be similar
to today, but winds will become westerly on Friday with a surface
trough across most of the area and a dryline taking shape across the
far eastern County Warning Area. This will be a result of a portion of the West
Coast upper trough breaking away and moving over the
central/northern plains. The westerly downslope winds will result in
temperatures warming up to the upper 80s to 90s across most of the
County Warning Area Friday afternoon. On the GFS, 700 mb winds are around 35 knots
across the Guadalupe Mountains Friday afternoon but agreement is not
very good so will not issue a watch at this time.

The surface winds across the area will be out of the west to
southwest on Saturday with temperatures cooling slightly from the
previous day across most of the County Warning Area. The upper trough over the West
Coast moves further east on Sunday but temperatures will likely stay
warm across the area from downslope winds. The dryline moves further
west Sunday night which may result in showers and thunderstorms
developing across eastern portions of the County Warning Area as upper lift
increases from the approaching upper trough. The upper trough
deepens on Monday with a dryline developing across the far east County Warning Area.
Depending on where the dryline is positioned, storms may develop
across the eastern Permian Basin and lower trans Pecos late Monday
afternoon into the evening. Temperatures on Monday will likely cool
as height falls occur from the approaching upper trough. The models
show the dryline across the far eastern County Warning Area Tuesday afternoon with
southwest surface winds across much of the area. A cold front is
expected to move into the area around Wednesday of next week with
rain chances remaining in the forecast as a result.

Fire weather...

Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon will ease this
evening as temperatures cool and rhs rise, albeit slowly out west.
Southerly winds will increase over the Permian Basin, increase low
level moisture return and result in good recovery as far west as a
Carlsbad to Fort Davis to Big Bend line tonight, and again Thursday
night. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again Thursday
afternoon in between due to high temperatures 15-20 degrees above
normal, minimum rhs of 5-15%, and erc-g values near the 90th
percentile. Winds will be from the southwest to west, but
generally stay in the 5-15 mph range.

Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for Friday afternoon/evening as
southwest to west winds of 20-30 mph help drive temperatures 15-20
degrees above normal, and rhs down to 6-13% along and west of a
Gail, Crane, alpine and Big Bend line. Erc-g will be around the
90th percentile, and the dry, windy conditions will drive rftis to
widespread 4-7 over these areas. Recovery will be good over the
Permian Basin Friday night, but poor over the western half of the
forecast area. More near critical to critical conditions are
expected both Saturday and Sunday as temperatures stay well above
normal, and rhs drop to 10-15% over portions of the forecast area.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 53 84 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 47 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 54 81 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 54 89 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 55 82 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 44 85 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 43 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 52 85 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 52 87 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 50 89 56 93 / 0 0 0 0


Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for Guadalupe Mountains-southeast plains.

Texas...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains area-Dawson-
Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and upper trans
Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 corridor-Ward-Winkler.

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