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fxus64 kmaf 171541 
afdmaf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
1041 am CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Discussion...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, W/bases
3.5-6 kft agl, and another near the end of the forecast period,
W/bases 4-5 kft agl.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 621 am CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

Discussion...
see 12z aviation discussion below.

Aviation...
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Isolated ts near maf/fst
21-03z but coverage not enough to mention in the taf at this time.

Previous discussion... /issued 317 am CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

Discussion...
the upper ridge, currently centered across the Gulf Coast states,
will continue to build west today, increasing heights from the
east. A surface trough invof the higher terrain today looks to
increase southeast flow and higher dewpoints are expected to
expand westward. Despite increasing heights, afternoon heating
along with southeast/upslope flow and persistent moisture may be
enough to warrant at least a slight chance for thunderstorms
across much of the area...although instability looks to be much
lower than what we have seen in previous days. Locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be the main threat and may result in
areas of flash flooding, especially across urban areas. 850mb
temperatures look to back off a few degrees from yesterday so
highs will be a few degrees cooler.

No major changes to the forecast beyond today... the upper ridge
will continue to build to the west and become centered over Texas by
this weekend. This looks to decrease rain chances across much of
the forecast area however we could get enough heating/instability along with
southeast/upslope flow in and near the mountains to overcome the
somewhat weak hold of the upper ridge for some afternoon/evening
storms each day beginning Friday through the weekend. Next week,
the upper ridge may strengthen a bit overhead, decreasing rain
chances even more. High temperatures look to remain near or
slightly above normal for mid August this weekend and through the
beginning of next work week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 95 74 96 75 / 20 20 10 10
Carlsbad 97 71 95 72 / 20 10 10 10
Dryden 95 76 97 77 / 20 10 10 10
Fort Stockton 95 72 94 73 / 20 10 20 10
Guadalupe Pass 89 67 86 67 / 20 10 20 20
Hobbs 93 69 91 69 / 20 20 10 10
Marfa 86 63 86 65 / 40 20 30 20
Midland Intl Airport 96 73 95 74 / 20 10 10 10
Odessa 96 73 95 74 / 20 10 10 10
Wink 99 73 97 74 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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