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000 
FXUS64 KMAF 241118
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
518 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue at most of the terminals this
morning before a cold front pushes moisture east. VFR conditions
will return late this morning with windy conditions developing.
Expect west winds gusting near 30 kts with patchy BLDU possible.
Winds will decrease after sunset.  

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Current observations show some dense fog is forming this morning
across the Permian Basin, but it is much more patchy and isolated
than seen yesterday morning so will not issue an advisory at this
time. A deep upper trough will move into the Central Plains today
causing strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains and windy
conditions across much of the remainder of the area. Considered
issuing a Wind Advisory but the timing of the trough is not quite
favorable, with 850mb winds strongest at noon and decreasing 
during the afternoon. That will only provide a brief window for
marginal advisory winds and not worthy of issuing the product.

The trough will push a Pacific front through but there will be
very little cold air advection due to significant airmass
modification. Zonal flow will bring temps back above normal to
start next week with low dewpoints leaving no chance for rainfall.
Another trough, very similar to the current one, approaches  
Wednesday. Again, this system will be characterized by windy
conditions and dry air with a heavily modified airmass bringing 
little cool air.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Windy conditions are expected to develop across the area later this 
morning as a storm system passes to the north. Even with 
temperatures this afternoon similar to yesterday, much drier air 
will filter in from the west. RFTI values mostly near 5-6 are 
expected, but recent cool and moist weather has allowed fuel 
moisture to increase (ERC-G values near 50%). LLTR looks to remain 
well east of the area so will issue a widespread Fire Danger 
Statement. Fuels will continue to dry into Sunday with another warm, 
windy day expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  32  70  30 /  10   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       63  30  66  28 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         76  40  79  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  64  36  71  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 48  33  53  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          58  27  63  25 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          56  24  62  26 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           63  32  69  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         62  32  69  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           63  29  69  28 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe 
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe 
     Mountains.

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