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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
544 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Discussion...

Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

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Aviation...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue through the
forecast period.

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Previous discussion... /issued 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016/

Discussion...as of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...sounding like a broken
record this month...another hot day with above normal
temperatures across West Texas and southeast New Mexico. As of
2:00 PM CDT the temperature at maf has reached 98 degrees.

Vis imagery does show a cumulus field over san angelo's County Warning Area progressing
west in the low/mid level flow...however water vapor imagery
shows the atmosphere basically Bone dry in the mid levels over
central Texas west into southeast New Mexico. With the subtropical
ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle southwest into southeast
New Mexico there is subsidence over the County Warning Area. In these conditions
it would be very difficult for any convection to get going.

The subtropical ridge will slowly retrograde to The Four Corners
region of the US by Tuesday. Lowering heights and 850 mb temps will
allow temperatures to drop a few degrees. By Monday...subsidence
will decrease with the thetae ridge edging closer. This could lead
to thunderstorms over the higher terrain...which will also be
aided by upslope flow and intense heating.

An inverted trof over the southeast US and Gulf of Mexico
will move slowly west into south Texas by Tuesday...and will
slowly translate west across the southern portions of the state
Tuesday/Wednesday. This will give the County Warning Area its best chance of more
widespread thunderstorm activity...even into the plains along
with temperature dropping to near normal.

After the inverted trof passes to the west the subtropical ridge
will reassert itself over the area. This will lead to temps near
to a couple of degrees above normal along with thunderstorm
chances confined to the higher terrain.

Strobin

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 77 100 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
Carlsbad 72 104 73 99 / 0 10 10 10
Dryden 78 103 79 101 / 0 10 0 10
Fort Stockton 74 100 75 97 / 0 10 0 10
Guadalupe Pass 72 96 71 90 / 0 10 10 20
Hobbs 70 98 70 95 / 0 10 10 10
Marfa 64 96 67 92 / 10 10 20 20
Midland Intl Airport 75 101 76 98 / 0 10 0 10
Odessa 76 100 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
Wink 75 102 76 100 / 0 10 0 10

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Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
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