Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmaf 131140 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
540 am CST Wed Dec 13 2017


Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. A cold front will
move into the area after 14/00z, resulting in a north/NE wind shift
at area terminals as it progresses southward. Wind speeds are
expected to remain under 12kt.


Previous discussion... /issued 255 am CST Wed Dec 13 2017/


The upper pattern over the Continental U.S. Is about to become a bit more
interesting the next several days, with more cold air expected to
move into the forecast area, and the possibility of more
precipitation too. Over the last several days we've had a West
Coast upper ridge and East Coast upper trough delivering a steady
diet of cool air via frequent dry frontal passages, followed by
brief warmups. However, each successive run of deterministic models
and ensembles are breaking down/retrograding the upper ridge off
the West Coast and digging an upper trough farther southwestward
over the intermountain west.

The initial shortwave trough is progged to drop southward over The
Four Corners Thursday, then form a cutoff low over Mexico by Friday
morning. The still amplified upper pattern over the Continental U.S. Will
result in above normal temperatures today as a Lee surface trough
strengthens over the southern U.S. Plains, followed by another cold
front dropping through the region Thursday with below normal
temperatures behind it. The upper trough will be in close enough
proximity to provide increasing cloud cover over the region, which
will aid in keeping high temperatures down Thursday afternoon, in
addition to providing enough lift for a low end chance of
precipitation over the southwestern half of the forecast area
Thursday night. Granted, the lower levels of the atmosphere will be
fairly dry, but there appears to be enough mid level moisture
associated with the shortwave trough for light precipitation
amounts. Forecast soundings indicate rain will be the initial
precipitation type, but will change to rain mixed with snow, or all
snow in the mountains, overnight. Since surface temperatures appear
only marginally cold enough to support any snow accumulation, will
keep amounts to an inch or less for now in the Davis Mountains and
Marfa Plateau. Precipitation could fall as far north as the
Guadalupe Mountains, if not the southeast New Mexico plains, but
this is a less agreed upon area, so will not make a mention there
for now.

Models diverge by Friday afternoon on how far south the cutoff low
will drop, with solutions varying from the Mexican states of
sinaloa or Chihuahua. But they all open and eject the upper low
over West Texas Saturday as another shortwave trough drops south
over the intermountain west. High temperatures Saturday will end
up being near normal over the western half of the forecast area,
but a slight chance of rain and the associated cloud cover will
make high temperatures difficult over the Permian Basin. The
above mentioned upper trough will dig to near The Four Corners by
Sunday morning, but models diverge on whether it will deepen and
end up to the west of the area, or translate southeastward
overhead Sunday. Will cleave toward the middle of the different
solutions for now and leave the forecast dry these days.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 70 33 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 69 30 54 31 / 0 0 0 10
Dryden 66 40 62 38 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Stockton 71 38 57 35 / 0 0 10 20
Guadalupe Pass 60 36 48 31 / 0 0 10 10
Hobbs 66 31 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 63 32 58 29 / 0 0 10 20
Midland Intl Airport 69 33 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 68 34 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 72 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 10


Maf watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations