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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
523 am CST sun Dec 11 2016

Discussion...

The latest aviation discussion is included below.

&&

Aviation...

IFR ceilings continue to stream northward, but mainly east of area
terminals this morning due to low level south to southwest winds.
However, despite thick high clouds spreading eastward over the
region, fog and low ceilings have developed at kink, and could
develop at all but kcnm where temperature and dewpoint spread is
greatest, and high cloud the thickest. Will go ahead and include
MVFR visibility in fog through 11/15z at most terminals. VFR
conditions are expected this afternoon and evening, but MVFR
ceilings may develop with a weak cold front late tonight.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 312 am CST sun Dec 11 2016/

Low clouds and moisture have slid west this morning, covering the
eastern half of the County Warning Area. Zonal flow aloft along with a developing
surface low over the Texas Panhandle will help shove this moisture
east by afternoon. Increasing downslope flow will also help
temperatures warm to the highest values we have seen in over a
week. Strong winds and low rh's may create a few fire weather
concerns down south later this afternoon. A weak front arrives
tonight, but washes out along the Pecos River Monday afternoon.
Expect slightly cooler conditions over the northern Permian Basin
Monday and not much change elsewhere.

Zonal mid level flow continues into mid week, keeping any cold air
at Bay. Temperatures will be well above normal during this time with
continued dry conditions. The forecast gets a bit complicated
later in the week when a strong cold front begins to move south
into the Southern Plains. Models continue to struggle with how
cold the air will be behind this front. There is still a potential
for large temperature forecast busts ahead due to this
uncertainty. Latest long range models show cooler air arriving
Thursday, retrieving Friday, and then coming back sometime during
the weekend. It is very possible that cold air settles in
Thursday, stays, and gets reinforced later next weekend. Time will
tell.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 72 37 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 72 39 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 72 47 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 76 45 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 63 43 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 69 35 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 69 35 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 72 37 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 71 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 73 39 73 40 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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