Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
616 am CDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016

Aviation...
12z taf issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
through this morning and the potential for thunderstorms today.
Currently have an area of light to moderate showers affecting southeast nm
extending south to near the Davis Mountains early this morning.
Conditions have slowly deteriorated over the last couple of hours
with fairly spotty MVFR/IFR cigs affecting most terminals. Have most
terminals returning to VFR by mid morning however with the current
shower activity, cnm and hob may hold on to low cigs a bit
longer...maybe through noon. Will continue rain showers at all but maf but
ts is definitely possible later today and could affect any and all
terminals. Nailing down exact timing and location is too difficult
at this time and will instead monitor radar trends and amend when
needed or adjust accordingly in subsequent taf issuances. Otherwise,
winds will generally be from the east/NE aob 10kt.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 338 am CDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016/

Discussion...
convection has increased across the area since midnight though
most of the shower activity has remained light to moderate.
However this rain is aligning in the same areas that have
received a lot of rain recently and any more could cause more
flash flooding concerns...especially from southeast New Mexico
into The Big Bend. Therefore have extended the Flash Flood Watch
out through this evening with the possibility that the day shift
may need to extend it once more into tonight. By tomorrow it
appears the areal coverage of rainfall will be diminishing and it
does not look likely that the watch will need to be extended
beyond that. Rain chances do not disappear entirely but this
weekend certainly looks drier than the past several days have
been. Along with the drier conditions we can expect high
temperatures increase back up to near normal...from the upper 80s
to lower 90s with the hottest readings along the Rio Grande.

Hennig

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 85 69 88 69 / 50 40 30 30
Carlsbad 78 67 80 66 / 70 70 50 40
Dryden 85 71 92 72 / 50 40 20 20
Fort Stockton 82 67 84 68 / 50 50 30 30
Guadalupe Pass 70 61 75 62 / 70 50 50 40
Hobbs 80 65 77 65 / 60 60 50 40
Marfa 77 61 78 61 / 60 30 40 20
Midland Intl Airport 84 67 85 69 / 50 40 30 30
Odessa 83 67 84 69 / 50 40 30 30
Wink 85 69 86 70 / 60 60 40 30

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for central Lea County-
Eddy County plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
northern Lea County-southern Lea County.

Texas...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Andrews-Big Bend area-
Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
Pecos-Presidio valley-Reeves County and upper trans Pecos-
Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

27/10

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations