Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMAF 171748 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1148 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and expand in coverage, thus have included -RA at area terminals, with -TSRA mention for MAF/FST for the next few hours where confidence is highest. Will continue to monitor and amend other terminals as needed. While a mixed bag of MVFR/VFR conditions currently exist, expect MVFR conditions to expand areawide over the next hour or two. Conditions will then deteriorate to IFR/LIFR with low clouds/fog this evening, persisting through Wednesday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/ DISCUSSION... A reinforcing shot of cooler air has entered the area this morning bringing a brief return of the cool temps seen this past weekend. Farther west, an upper low over northwestern Mexico will move northeast today sending a strong vort max across west Texas near 00Z. The low will increase isentropic lift behind the front but it is the smaller disturbance rotating around the low that will increase instability enough to really increase showers and isolated storms this afternoon and early evening. The rain will mostly exit the area by midnight so temperatures should be warm enough that the precipitation type will be all liquid. Any area that has temperatures fall below freezing tonight will have already had the precip come to an end. However there could be some overpasses getting slick with residual water on the roads in southeastern New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin so motorists should be aware of this hazard. Southwest flow ahead of the low will push moisture east of the area tomorrow but the low will take an additional 24 hours to exit the area. A mean 500 mb longwave trough will remain across the western U.S. this week so more disturbances can be expected moving out of the Pacific and across New Mexico and Texas. The first will arrive Thursday night with the center passing too far north to provide our CWA with any rainfall. Another arrives this weekend and while its track will be to the north as well, this system will be stronger and could give us a chance for rainfall. At this time the temperatures appear too warm for any chance of wintry precip. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 36 58 40 68 / 50 10 0 0 Carlsbad 32 62 38 68 / 40 10 0 0 Dryden 39 64 43 73 / 30 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 34 62 44 71 / 30 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 31 54 35 55 / 30 10 0 0 Hobbs 32 56 35 64 / 50 10 0 0 Marfa 27 58 29 61 / 20 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 35 57 40 66 / 50 10 0 0 Odessa 36 57 39 65 / 50 10 0 0 Wink 34 61 37 68 / 40 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None.