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000 
FXUS64 KMAF 171748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1148 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and expand in 
coverage, thus have included -RA at area terminals, with -TSRA
mention for MAF/FST for the next few hours where confidence is 
highest. Will continue to monitor and amend other terminals as
needed. While a mixed bag of MVFR/VFR conditions currently exist,
expect MVFR conditions to expand areawide over the next hour or 
two. Conditions will then deteriorate to IFR/LIFR with low 
clouds/fog this evening, persisting through Wednesday morning. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing shot of cooler air has entered the area this morning
bringing a brief return of the cool temps seen this past weekend.
Farther west, an upper low over northwestern Mexico will move
northeast today sending a strong vort max across west Texas near
00Z. The low will increase isentropic lift behind the front but it
is the smaller disturbance rotating around the low that will 
increase instability enough to really increase showers and 
isolated storms this afternoon and early evening. The rain will
mostly exit the area by midnight so temperatures should be warm
enough that the precipitation type will be all liquid. Any area
that has temperatures fall below freezing tonight will have
already had the precip come to an end. However there could be 
some overpasses getting slick with residual water on the roads in 
southeastern New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin so 
motorists should be aware of this hazard. 

Southwest flow ahead of the low will push moisture east of the 
area tomorrow but the low will take an additional 24 hours to exit
the area. A mean 500 mb longwave trough will remain across the 
western U.S. this week so more disturbances can be expected 
moving out of the Pacific and across New Mexico and Texas. The
first will arrive Thursday night with the center passing too far
north to provide our CWA with any rainfall. Another arrives this
weekend and while its track will be to the north as well, this
system will be stronger and could give us a chance for rainfall.
At this time the temperatures appear too warm for any chance of
wintry precip.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  50  10   0   0 
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  40  10   0   0 
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  30  10   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  30   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  30  10   0   0 
Hobbs                          32  56  35  64 /  50  10   0   0 
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  20   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           35  57  40  66 /  50  10   0   0 
Odessa                         36  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0 
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.

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