Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmaf 280210
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
910 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017
Area radars show convection has pretty much died out, except for a
few lingering cells on the Diablo plateau. 00z NAM zeroes out
convection for the rest of the night, but the hrrr is persistent
in spotty convection near current activity. We'll take pops down
to bare minimums to cover this, and update other parameters as
necessary. Updates out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 606 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/
See 00z aviation discussion below.
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be out of the southeast and will weaken late this evening.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms but chances are too low
to mention at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 437 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/
We'll do a quick update to include convective activity near
alpine. Updates out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 144 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/
central and western U.S. Locked into a Summer pattern with ridge in
control of wx. The upper ridge centered over nm this morning will
wobble around but not shift west until early next week. As it does
temperatures should decrease a little and rain chances increase.
Persistent S/southeast wind will keep low level moisture high which will
help to moderate temperatures. Current dewpts into the lower 60s.
The normal high for most of the region for late July is the mid 90s.
Expect highs a little above normal in the uppers 90s through the
rest of the week with 100 or more along the Pecos and Rio Grande.
With so little day to day change went with a blend between guidance
and persistence. The last time maf recorded 100 degrees or more was
July 3rd. Next week may be a a little cooler with long range
guidance trending downward as the ridge center moves off.
Had a few showers and storms kick off before noon in Eddy County but
as of 18z most precip is west of the County Warning Area. Model qpf keeps the
precip mainly around the western edge of the region due to the
ridge. Best chances the rest of the afternoon and evening should be
over the higher elevations from near cnm to MRF. Quantitative precipitation forecast also shows a
little precip moving down across the NE Permian Basin Saturday night
and/or Sunday as shortwaves come down around east side of ridge.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 75 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 10
Carlsbad 73 100 72 99 / 10 10 10 10
Dryden 75 99 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 73 98 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 69 89 68 90 / 10 10 10 10
Hobbs 70 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 64 90 60 91 / 10 10 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 74 102 73 102 / 0 0 0 0