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Area forecast discussion...update 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
900 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016

Discussion...

Evening convection over southwest to southern Arkansas continues to
gradually move southeast and slowly weaken. Short range models
continue this trend and slowly wash convection out over southern Arkansas
to northern la. Forecast update will have this trend. Most of
central and northern Arkansas will have a lower chance of convection
overnight. Patchy lower ceilings and fog will also be seen late
night especially in areas that receive rain. The upper northwest
flow remains into the region and convection will be possible, but
forecasting location of convection is a challenge. Otherwise, lows
tonight will be from the upper 60s to mid 70s. (59)

&&

Prev discussion.../ issued 645 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016/
aviation...

Evening convection is on-going at taf time and central and southern
tafs will have thunderstorms in the vicinity and tempo groups included this evening to around
midnight. Patchy MVFR ceilings and visibility with storms. Overnight
at taf sites that received rain areas of MVFR will be seen as well
as isolated IFR conditions will be possible. Winds will be light
from the south while light and variable away from storms. On
Saturday clouds will start the day then partly cloudy with
convection from time to time. (59)

&&

Prev discussion.../ issued 240 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016/

Short term...tonight through Sunday

Widespread convection will continue across roughly the northern
half of the state this afternoon and evening before diurnal trends
lead to dissipation of storms. In the meantime some of these
storms will continue to be strong to severe...with damaging winds
and some hail being a distinct possibility.

Otherwise...northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region
through the first half of this weekend before an upper ridge begins
to build in from the southwest...displacing the upper level
northwesterly flow off towards the Ohio River valley area. Until
that time however...nocturnal mesoscale convective system and afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expect. As such fairly broad-brushed chance
pops will be in the forecast through the remainder of the short
term period. Temperatures will remain around or slightly below
seasonal norms...especially during the afternoon hours.

&&

Long term...Sunday night through Friday

Ridging will build back into the region during the period, with only
isolated to scattered, diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms
expected. Humidity will remain high, and by mid-week, heat index
values could approach or exceed 105 degrees in places. By the end of
the period, influence of the ridge should begin to wane.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 73 89 72 90 / 30 40 50 50
Camden Arkansas 75 94 76 95 / 30 40 20 40
Harrison Arkansas 69 86 70 89 / 30 40 50 40
Hot Springs Arkansas 74 92 76 93 / 50 40 30 40
Little Rock Arkansas 75 92 75 93 / 50 40 30 40
Monticello Arkansas 75 92 76 93 / 30 40 30 40
Mount Ida Arkansas 73 91 74 93 / 50 40 20 30
Mountain Home Arkansas 70 87 70 89 / 20 40 50 50
Newport Arkansas 73 89 73 90 / 40 40 50 50
Pine Bluff Arkansas 73 92 74 93 / 40 40 30 40
Russellville Arkansas 74 91 74 93 / 40 40 40 40
Searcy Arkansas 74 91 73 91 / 50 40 40 40
Stuttgart Arkansas 74 92 74 91 / 50 40 40 40
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...64 / long term...57

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