Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 221134
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
634 am CDT Sat Jul 22 2017
light southerly winds will persist at most taf sites this morning
with only some patchy fog at a few locations early in the period.
VFR conditions will predominate for the majority of the period.
Moisture will slowly increase as the period progresses with only
isolated showers and thunderstorms expected during the heat of the
day. The isolated nature of the precipitation will preclude
mentioning it in the terminal forecasts. Winds will remain light
through the period.
Previous discussion...(issued 339 am CDT Sat Jul 22 2017
Short term...Saturday through Sunday night
Another day of high temperatures and elevated humidity is expected
across the area as the upper level high pressure remains in
control. The upper ridge does contract to the west as the period
progresses but overall only minimal relief is expected on Sunday.
Models have backed off, but not totally removed, the chances of
precipitation over the south and southeast for today. With
precipitation chances down a bit, temperatures will be nudged up
slightly and the heat advisory will be expanded to include the
entire County Warning Area for today.
Better chances of rain are expected area wide on Sunday as a weak
front approaches from the north. In addition to the front, a system
will be moving along the Gulf Coast. Even so, it appears another hot
and humid day is expected and the heat advisory will be continued
across central and northern sections.
Cloud cover and higher precipitation chances over the south should
keep temperatures down just enough that a heat advisory will not be
Long term...Monday through Friday
Upper high pressure will be over the middle of the U.S. To begin the
long term period. The high is expected to shift east Tuesday and
Wednesday. This high is expected to move back to the west for
Thursday and Friday.
A cold front will be in southern Missouri Monday and drops into
north Arkansas on Tuesday. This weak front lifts back to the north
Wednesday as a warm front into Missouri. High pressure will be over
the state for the rest of the period. Rain chances will continue
through the period as the front will help destabilize the
atmosphere. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be
Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation will be more isolated for the
latter part of the period. Near normal temperatures are expected
through the period.
heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Baxter-Boone-Cleburne-
Heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Arkansas-Bradley-