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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
255 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Short term...tonight through Sunday night

Much like yesterday, convection developed rapidly by early afternoon
but a little more concentrated over the south versus previous days.
Current temperatures are actually running a little behind yesterday
but dew points are higher leading to excessive heat warnings around
the metropolitan area with a heat advisory covering the remainder of
the County Warning Area. The very hot conditions will continue on Sunday and the
heat advisory will be continued but the extended period will offer
some relief.

Strong upper ridge that has been dominating of late is showing some
signs of breaking down. Latest moisture channel imagery shows an
upper trough over the western High Plains that is effectively
flattening out this feature. Moisture channel imagery also shows an
upper level disturbance along the Tennessee/Mississippi border, on
the eastern periphery of the ridge, which is helping to enhance the
convection.

Precipitation chances will decrease this evening before ramping up
again tonight and especially Sunday as the aforementioned upper
disturbance drifts southwest through the day. Rain chances will be
higher over the south as a result. With precipitable waters in excess of two
inches and light winds aloft, locally heavy rain can not be
discounted. Precipitation chances will decrease Sunday night as the
disturbance weakens/moves into Texas by Monday morning.

&&

Long term...Monday through Saturday

The gist of the long term period has not changed much. High
amplitude upper ridge will have broken down come Monday, thanks to a
couple of shortwave troughs making upper flow across the Canadian
border more zonal. Afterward the models are in good agreement with
building the ridge over the western United States by mid to late
week which will offer continued relief from the excessive heat we
have seen of late.

In addition to the relief in the heat, the pattern change will lead
to increased rain chances. This will be a mix of diurnally driven
convective tendencies, as well as the possibility of some mesoscale convective system
activity. As such kept rain chances in the forecast during both the
daytime and nighttime hours, with the highest chances during the
afternoon and evening. One other thing to note about the long term
period is that precipitable water values will be fairly
high...around or exceeding 2 inches...through the period. With
overall weak flow and high precipitable water levels, the possibility for flash
flooding will be of concern as storms will be efficient rain
producers and slow moving.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 96 77 93 76 / 30 20 30 20
Camden Arkansas 99 78 95 74 / 30 30 50 30
Harrison Arkansas 95 76 94 73 / 30 10 30 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 99 78 96 74 / 30 30 40 30
Little Rock Arkansas 101 78 96 76 / 30 30 40 20
Monticello Arkansas 96 78 93 75 / 30 40 60 30
Mount Ida Arkansas 99 76 95 73 / 30 20 30 30
Mountain Home Arkansas 97 76 95 74 / 30 10 30 20
Newport Arkansas 97 77 94 76 / 30 20 40 20
Pine Bluff Arkansas 96 78 93 75 / 30 40 50 30
Russellville Arkansas 99 77 96 75 / 30 20 30 20
Searcy Arkansas 97 77 94 74 / 30 30 40 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 97 77 94 75 / 30 40 50 20
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-sharp-stone-Van Buren-white-Woodruff-Yell.

Excessive heat warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Faulkner-
Lonoke-Pulaski-Saline-white.

&&

$$

Short term...56 / long term...64

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