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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
323 am CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Short term...today through Saturday night
practically a rinse and repeat persistence forecast. Elongated upper
ridge remains anchored overhead, nearly stacked atop broad surface
high pressure across the eastern half of the Continental U.S.. no
significant weather expected through the period aside from
diurnally-driven cumulus once deep mixing commences after sunrise.
H850 temps of 18c+ keeping temps above average in the upper 80s
and low 90s, although NAM guidance tries to knock those values
down into the 16-17c range by tomorrow afternoon, so perhaps a
degree or two cooler, especially in higher terrain across northern
Arkansas.

Southerly flow relaxes a bit today as the tight pressure
gradient across the High Plains is buffered by the ridge. Continued
influx of moisture in a stagnant atmosphere will keep dewpoints
uncomfortably high and overnight low level moisture pooling will
promote patchy fog and/or haze. Models in good agreement slowly
nudging an upper low our way as the period ends, which would
predominantly result in increased cloud cover across the southern
counties. Little to no thunder expected through Sat night with
continued strong subsidence aloft.

Used a blend of hi-res and global guidance with preference for
the hrrr/NAM through tomorrow evening, then a more general blend
thereafter.

&&

Long term...Sunday through Thursday
initially, presence of an upper low in the vicinity of the midsouth
region will keep diurnally-driven convection in the forecast.

However, by late Monday and into Tuesday, the system will dampen out
and get absorbed into the mean flow. Irritating ridge which has been
our predominant weather feature will continue to break apart, and
the southern remnant of it will flatten out. This will allow a
stalled frontal boundary out in the plains to move southeast and
into the region, with rain chances increasing.

By the end of the week, troughing digging down into the central
Continental U.S. Will push the front out of the region, with cooler air
following. Heck, it may even start to feel like fall again.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 91 70 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
Camden Arkansas 92 72 91 70 / 10 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 89 67 88 65 / 10 0 10 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 91 72 90 70 / 10 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 92 71 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 91 71 90 69 / 10 0 10 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 90 69 89 68 / 10 0 10 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 90 68 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
Newport Arkansas 91 69 90 68 / 10 0 10 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 92 71 91 70 / 10 0 10 0
Russellville Arkansas 91 70 90 69 / 10 0 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 91 70 89 68 / 10 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 91 70 90 69 / 10 0 10 0
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.

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