Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 181237
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
637 am CST Sat Nov 18 2017
Aviation...18/12z taf cycle
Cold front was poised to enter far northwest Arkansas this mrng. MVFR cigs wl be
common thru much of today as the fnt moves acrs the forecast area. Model data
cont to show the bndry exiting southeastern Arkansas by late aftn. Gusty S/SW
winds ahead of the fnt, with shift to the northwest behind it. Expect
sustained speeds of 15 to 30 mph, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
Kept vcsh in the fcst as potential for convection wl be to our east.
VFR conds wl return by tngt as high pres blds into Arkansas. /44/
Previous discussion...(issued 355 am CST Sat Nov 18 2017)
short term...today through Sunday night
Sfc low pres was centered over ern Kansas early this mrng, producing
gusty southerly winds acrs Arkansas. Have already seen some ob reports of wind
gusts in excess of 30 mph. It was also an unseasonably mild morning
with temps in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
The springlike wx conds wl be short lived as a cold front trailing southward FM
the aforementioned sfc low wl sweep eastward thru the area today. Current
trends have the fnt into our northwest County Warning Area arnd mid-mrng, into central Arkansas
at midday, and southeast of the area late this aftn. Much of the forecast area wl see
high temps occur prior to fropa, with falling temps thereafter.
Gusty S/SW winds wl shift to the northwest behind the fnt. Already have a
lake wind advy posted for the forecast area. Rain chances along and ahead of
the fnt still look limited for our fa, with better chances for
organized convection still focused to our east. Post-frontal rain wl be
mainly confined to northern Arkansas into the mid aftn hrs.
The rest of the weekend wl be drier and much cooler as high pressure
settles into the region.
Long term...Monday through Friday
An upper ridge will be over much of the U.S. To begin the period. A
weak upper trough develops Monday in the plains Monday then moves
through Arkansas Monday night. This trough deepens as it moves east
and will reach the East Coast Wednesday as an upper ridge builds
over the western U.S. GFS indicates a cutoff low develops in the
Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and moves it up the East Coast
Friday, while the European model (ecmwf) does not. Northwest flow aloft remains over
Arkansas Thursday and Friday.
Overall, expect mainly dry conditions during the extended period.
High pressure will be over the area Monday but a cold front moves
through the area Tuesday and will bring a slight chance of showers
to the south part of the state. High pressure will be over the area
Wednesday through Friday with dry conditions. Temperatures will be
near normal to a bit below through the extended period.
lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Arkansas-