Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 271148 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
648 am CDT Tue Jun 27 2017
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion below.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with winds veering
from a north-northeast direction to a southeast direction with time today. Removed
all precipitation from the northern terminals as showers have
Previous discussion...(issued 410 am CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 )
Short term...today through Wednesday night
Isolated to scattered showers will continue across northern
Arkansas through daybreak and possibly into the mid morning hours
as shortwave energy rotates through the area. This shortwave will
reinforce the drier air we have in place across the region as high
pressure over the Central Plains and upper Midwest attempts to
build into Arkansas from the north. This will also hold
temperatures down below normal once again today, which is just
fine by this forecaster.
Tonight and into Wednesday morning upper ridging to the west of
the state will shift east over Arkansas. The ridge will lose some
aplitude as it does so, but the combination of the ridge aloft and
the return flow pattern at the surface will push temperatures back
up to near normal values. Highs in the mid 80s to around 90 will
return, along with notably higher dewpoints and humidity values.
Long term...Thursday through Monday
General ridging will be noted across much of the southern United
States, with a gap in the ridge /weak low pressure/ along the
central Gulf Coast. Nearly zonal flow will exist north of the ridge
across the Central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley as well as
northern Arkansas. Toward the end of the period, it appears a trough
will develop in the east-west flow, and will drive a cold front
toward the region.
Given the scenario, isolated diurnally driven /heat of the day/
thunderstorms are expected Thursday in southern sections of the
state near the weak low. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms
will follow by the weekend, especially across the north as the
aforementioned front nears.
There may be locally heavy rain /1 to 2 inch plus amounts/ across
the north, especially if an mesoscale convective system or two is involved. There is a
potential of some severe weather, although amount of instability
is uncertain at this time.
As far as temperatures, readings will be a little below seasonal
during the daytime and warmer than average at night.