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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
904 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Update...
near term forecasts appear on track. Several cam type models are
recently speeding the arrival of convection across western
sections of the forecast area. Current forecasts account for this
scenario.

55

&&

Previous discussion...(issued 623 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017)

Aviation...
expect thunderstorms and rain to approach western sections in the 21-00z time frame.
Expect 4000-6000 ft ceilings to develop from south to north
between 06 and 12z.

55

Previous discussion...(issued 303 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017)

Short term...tonight through Saturday

The main points for this forecast period will be the strong winds
and the returning chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of
which may be severe.

An upper level low is forecast to sweep through the natural state
this weekend and bring with it a strong cold front and stormy
weather. As of this afternoon, an upper level trough was located in
The Four Corners region and is approaching the plains where it is
forecast to intensify into a closed off low.

Ahead of the upper level low, winds in Arkansas will strengthen as
the pressure gradient tightens and forcing increases. This will
result in winds rising into the 15 to 20 mph range. With these
conditions have decided to issue a lake Wind Advisory for 15z on
Friday through 03z on Saturday.

Southerly winds will continue to advect increasing moisture north
into the state overnight and during the day on Friday. With a fairly
dynamic storm system approaching with ample wind shear and forcing,
expect severe thunderstorms to become possible. The best estimated
timing for thunderstorms will be in the mid to late afternoon in the
west, evening to overnight in the central portions of Arkansas, and
eastern parts of the state in the overnight to early morning hours.
The main threat with this line of storms will be strong and damaging
winds, however tornadoes and large hail are possible. The limiting
factor right now is the lack of instability. If cape values
increase, the threat for tornadoes and large hail will also
increase. As a result, will need to monitor the trends in
instability during the day on Friday.

Overall, temperatures will be warm with lows in the upper 50s and
60s and highs in the 70s. However, after the cold front moves
through the region Friday and Friday night, overnight lows on Friday
night will be in the lower 50s and highs on Saturday will be in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

Once the cold front pushes through the state on Saturday, drier air
will filter in from the west. However, with the vort Max slowly
moving off to the northeast, wrap around moisture is possible and
therefore have left a chance of pops in the northwest.

Long term...Saturday night through Thursday

Besides some wrap around moisture from the departing system
lingering in northern Arkansas, the remainder of the forecast area
should be cloud (and precip) free Saturday night through the day on
Sunday. This will be short lived however, with an upper level trough
expected to dig over the mid west and drop a cold front into the
state Sunday night through Monday. Timing/placement looks a little
more consistent, but the GFS is a bit more aggressive compared to
the European model (ecmwf). A more impressive system will barrel through at the end
of the forecast cycle as a second upper level trough to our west
becomes negatively tilted at the end of the week. Model spread
increases in this time frame but does imply at least some severe
weather threat in this part of the country. Through the forecast
period, temperatures will remain near seasonal averages with highs
in the 60s/70s and lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
lake Wind Advisory from 10 am to 10 PM CDT Friday for Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-sharp-stone-Van Buren-
white-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

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