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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
616 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

Discussion...

Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below...

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Aviation...

Some isolated to scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will continue over portions
of the state this evening...with some vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity mentioned. Should
see a break in the precip overnight for most areas...though some
patchy fog will be possible. By sunrise and into the morning
hrs...chances for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain do increase across the southeastern half of
the state...with scattered to potentially numerous rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
possible..

&&

Previous discussion...(issued 248 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016)

Short term...tonight through Thursday

Convection through this evening will be largely beneath a
deformation axis stretching from southern Oklahoma, through
northwest Arkansas, and into southeastern Missouri. The highest
rain chances will be in those areas. Outside of this region some
isolated showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours
cannot be ruled out and the rain chances reflect this.

Overnight and into Wednesday a weak low will move north from the
central Gulf Coast along the Mississippi River valley. The lift
from this feature along with a reinforcing shot of high
precipitable water values should produce fairly widespread
convection tomorrow. The aforementioned deformation zone, along
with height falls associated with this low, will produce some
scattered nocturnal convection that will be present before
daybreak but better rain chances will be during the late morning
and afternoon hours...especially in the east and southeast. This
upper low will be kicked out of the region late Thursday as upper
flow across the central and Southern Plains becomes increasingly
northwesterly in nature and the low gets caught up in the
developing trough. The act of this being kicked off to the east
though will mean another round of convection late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning.

The increase in cloud cover and rainfall tomorrow should preclude
the need for another heat advisory...though muggy conditions will
continue. Similar conditions will be present Thursday as well.

Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday

Gulf system will still be close to the area at the beginning of the
period, leaving scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
This will keep clouds over the region which should keep high
temperatures a little closer to seasonal averages, though lows will
still be pretty warm.

By Friday/Saturday, Gulf system will be east of the area, but
another fairly potent shortwave will drop down in northwest flow
aloft. This will likely give at least the northeast half of the
state a chance at an mesoscale convective system or two Friday night through Sunday.

By early next week, the upper ridge will start to attempt to rear
its ugly head, decreasing rain chances, and increasing temperatures
(though it doesn't look overly hot at this point). Don't get ME
wrong, humidity will remain high, and it will still feel disgusting
at times. After all, it is Summer in Arkansas, right?

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Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Grant-
Hot Spring-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-
Perry-prairie-Pulaski-Saline-white-Woodruff.

&&

$$



Aviation...62

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