Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 251139 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
639 am CDT sun Jun 25 2017
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion.
Still have a few showers between kpbf and kadf but do not believe
these will affect any terminals and will not carry any vcsh
either. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period with only scattered mid and high clouds forecast. Winds will
be light and generally out of the north to northeast as high
pressure builds in.
Previous discussion...(issued 405 am CDT sun Jun 25 2017 )
Short term...today through Monday night
Isolated to scattered rain showers continue to develop along and
east of a line from Mt Ida to Conway, and through Searcy this
morning. A weak shortwave trough is moving through the region and
should be east of Arkansas by shortly after daybreak. Weak lift
associated with this shortwave, along with some elevated
instability is aiding in shower development. This should end by
mid morning as the shortwave moves east of the state. Until then,
a slight chance of light rain will continue.
Otherwise, high pressure building in from the north will keep
temperatures down below normal again today and on Monday as well.
Another shortwave, embedded in the large scale trough over the
eastern US, will move south through the plains on Monday. This
will push a front into northern Arkansas Monday afternoon and into
Monday night. Expect to see showers and thunderstorms develop
in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, which should be enough to
give scattered rainfall to the northern third of the state from
Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning.
Long term...Tuesday through Saturday
A ridge of high pressure over the southwest United States will
become less pronounced through the extended period. Even so, general
ridging will be noted across much of the southern United States,
with a nearly zonal flow north of the ridge across the Central
Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley as well as northern Arkansas. With
time, a cold front to the northwest will slowly advance toward the
Given the scenario, it will be dry Tuesday/Wednesday, with isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning on Thursday as weak
systems aloft ride the zonal flow in/near the region. The best
chances for rain will be over the northern counties, with more
spotty precipitation in the south closer to the ridge.
By next weekend, chances for rain in the north may increase a bit
more as the aforementioned front nears.
As far as temperatures, readings will be close to seasonal to
perhaps a little below normal.