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Area forecast discussion...update
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
630 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017


Overall VFR flight conditions with ceilings will start the forecast,
except northern taf sites where MVFR ceilings will be possible.
Winds will be west to northwest at less than 10 mph or light and
variable to start the forecast, then will become northeast to
southeast at 5 to 15 mph through the day. Some of the MVFR
conditions will last today through mid-day, then gradually thin in
the afternoon. (59)


Prev discussion.../ issued 327 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
Wednesday to Thursday, with the risk of severe storms.
Temperatures will mostly be above normal values.

Currently, surface high pressure was filtering into the area, with
a bit drier air, and temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. Some
lower stratus clouds were seen over northern AR, which will hold
over the north this morning. Patchy in other areas today. Winds
were light from the northwest. Aloft, upper level ridging is seen
over the region, which will help warm temperatures today to the
70s with a few 80s in the south.


Short through Wednesday night

Today will be a dry and mild day, with partly sunny to mostly
sunny conditions. The lower clouds will be seen this morning,
especially over northern AR, but expect some thinning and mixing
into the afternoon and at least partly sunny skies will be seen,
with the best chance for sunny conditions over central and
southern Arkansas. Highs today will be in the 60s north, the 70s central
to the lower 80s south. Tonight, increasing clouds will be seen
spreading in from the west, as well as the chance of rain will
increase in the west as the next weather system moves toward Arkansas.
Lows will be in the 50s to 60s. Wednesday will see increasing
chances of convection in the west, and spreading across much of
the state through the day and Wednesday night. A threat of severe
storms will be seen early Wednesday over far western areas, but a
better chance will be during the day Wednesday to Wednesday night,
as the main lift, moisture and instability Max over Arkansas. Storm Prediction Center has
day two with a slight to enhance risk over Arkansas. Damaging winds,
large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. The upper system
is slower than the last few systems, and heavy rain will also be
a concern over AR, with localized flooding. Estimated rain amounts
are from 1 to 3 inches. Model trends are overall consistent with
some smaller inconsistencies with timing and intensity.


Long term...Thursday through Monday

The parade of storm systems across the southern United States will
continue in the extended period. One system will be on its way out
to begin the period. There will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday, followed by dry weather into the first part
of the weekend. This will be provided by high pressure building into
Arkansas from the north. On Sunday, yet another storm system will
approach from the Southern Plains. Clouds will increase, with
scattered showers in the forecast. Precipitation will be most likely
over the southwest half of the state. The track of the system looks
far enough to the south that severe weather may not be much of an
issue. As far as temperatures, readings will generally be above


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 69 54 75 59 / 10 20 40 80
Camden Arkansas 78 62 81 62 / 20 20 20 90
Harrison Arkansas 69 54 70 56 / 10 30 60 90
Hot Springs Arkansas 75 61 76 60 / 10 20 30 90
Little Rock Arkansas 75 59 79 62 / 10 10 30 90
Monticello Arkansas 79 61 82 65 / 20 20 20 80
Mount Ida Arkansas 75 60 75 59 / 10 30 40 90
Mountain Home Arkansas 70 52 73 57 / 10 20 50 90
Newport Arkansas 69 54 75 62 / 10 10 30 80
Pine Bluff Arkansas 75 60 81 64 / 10 10 20 80
Russellville Arkansas 73 58 75 59 / 10 20 40 90
Searcy Arkansas 72 56 78 61 / 10 10 30 80
Stuttgart Arkansas 74 60 79 64 / 10 10 20 80

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.

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