Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
556 PM CDT Monday Oct 24 2016


Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below...



Fairly quiet conditions continue across the area...even with a
weak front dropping SW into the state. This front will bring some
slightly drier air across the northestern half of the state...but ahead
of this weak front...there could be some patchy morning fog.
Otherwise...expect VFR conditions to continue through the
period...with winds less than 10 kts.


Previous discussion...(issued 308 PM CDT Monday Oct 24 2016)

Short through Wednesday

Water vapor imagery shows long-wave ridging with an embedded
shortwave moving through the arklatex region. While some ascent is
probable, insufficient moisture in the mid-levels should prevent
anything more than a few isolated cumulus clouds from developing.

After the shortwave passes through to the south in the evening
hours, surface high pressure is expected to build into the region
from the north. As cooler air will filter into northeast Arkansas,
temperatures will be slightly colder tonight than they were last
night. The same can't be said for the western portions of the County Warning Area.
Winds will be veering around the aforementioned high and into low
pressure in the High Plains/rockies, advecting slightly warmer air
into the region. With near calm winds and little cloud cover
overnight, sufficient radiational cooling may lead to patchy
fog...especially across the southern portions of the state, which is
in a bit of a col.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, southeasterly flow ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front will keep
temperatures a little bit above average for mid/late October. Strong
high pressure off to the east will keep temperatures and moisture a
little bit lower than what they could otherwise be- as air won't be
flowing directly over the Gulf before arriving here. That said, will
keep pops low and primarily across the northern portion of the County Warning Area
where DPVA will be greatest.

Long term...Wednesday night through Sunday

Even with the aforementioned fropa there remains only a very small
chance to improve the rainfall deficit across the natural
state..especially in central and southern Arkansas. As the front
moves south it will have very limited moisture to interact with
giving ME virtually no reason to increase pops. Even more
disheartening will be the unseasonably warm temps that follow.
Friday through the weekend will warm back up into the upper 70s to
lower 80s, over 10 degrees above seasonal averages by Sunday. Beyond
this forecast cycle, models are hinting at a much more potent storm
system building over the Southern Plains which would likely affect
Arkansas by the first weekend of November. Stay tuned...


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations