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Area forecast discussion...update for aviation 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1250 am CDT Monday Jul 25 2016


Overall VFR flight conditions are expected. Some patchy fog and low
clouds will be possible with MVFR conditions possible overnight. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm may be seen overnight to Monday
morning, but coverage will be very low and did not include in tafs.
Winds will be light and variable, or light from the south. On Monday
a bit better chances of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over Arkansas and at taf sites. (59)


Previous discussion...(issued 251 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016)

Short term...tonight through Tuesday

Heat advisory will be allowed to expire this evening on schedule as
pattern starts to transform somewhat. While it will stay hot, after
all its July in the mid south, the oppressive heat will be ending
for the time being.

Latest moisture channel imagery showing a mid level trough moving
through the northern plains at this time. System is suppressing the
ridge and moving its axis to the west with a lowering of heights and
cooler temperatures. A weak impulse in the upper flow is moving
along the periphery of the upper high and helping to ignite this
afternoons convection. Some of this activity will likely persist
after dark as opposed to falling apart after the loss of heating like
the past few nights.

Attention will then turn to a cold front approaching from the north.
Latest data indicates it may barely get into the northern counties
tonight with at least some precipitation chances warranted. Forecast
for both Monday and Tuesday will be muddled with the aforementioned
frontal boundary in the area and the area in between upper level
highs to the west and to the east.

As such, will need to keep some scattered precipitation chances in
the forecast as a result with temperatures very close to where they
should be for this time of the year. The majority of the precip will
be diurnal in nature, aided by the plethora of outflow boundaries
still lurking about.

Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday

Basically...the models cont to indc that an unsettled wx pattern wl
prevail acrs the mid-south thru the long term pd. The overall upr
air pattern wl transition...with upr highs bcmg centered ovr the 4-
corners region in the west...and a Bermuda high off the southeast coastal

The main storm track wl stay well north of Arkansas thru the pd...with a broad
upr trof/shear zone situated ovr the forecast area. With plenty of moisture
holding in place...a series of weak upr lvl impulses wl combine to
produce scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain pretty much each day. While most of the
convection wl be diurnally driven...low probability of precipitation wl be included durg the
overnight hrs for any lingering activity.

Models do cont to indc that a fntl bndry wl attempt to drop southeastward
into central and southern MO later in the pd. If this trend holds...northern Arkansas
could see better chcs for organized convection later this coming
week and into next weekend. Locally heavy rainfall wl also bcm a
concern for locations where several rounds of convection occur in a
fairly short pd of time. One highlight wl be that daytime temps wl
be closer to normal thru the pd...thanks to abundant cloud cover and
contd rain chcs.


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.



Short term...62 / long term...32

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