Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 212355
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
555 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017
VFR prevails. Frontal boundary will slowly finish crossing the
state through the remainder of the evening. Any lingering clouds
in southern Arkansas will push out and winds will become northerly to
northwesterly around 10 kts south and slightly weaker elsewhere.
Previous discussion...(issued 238 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017)
short term...tonight through Thursday
well, I wish I had something a little more interesting to discuss
with you. But, instead, i'll just discuss what's going on now.
Cold front is currently located from north central Arkansas to
between Mena and dequeen and moving southeastward. No real
appreciable low level moisture is ahead of the boundary, and as
such, no rainfall is expected. The front will clear the area some
time this evening, with high pressure moving into the region.
Next couple of days should be fairly nice and uneventful, with
lows mainly in the 30s and highs in the 50s to lower 60s. So, in
other words, it should be nice enough to get out and walk off that
Thanksgiving feast you just partook in. Now, if I could just follow
my own advice...
Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday
an upper ridge will be over the southwest U.S. To begin the long
term period with an upper trough over the northeast. Another weak
trough will move along the Canadian border Friday and Saturday. High
pressure takes over the western two thirds of the country Saturday
night and spreads eastward Sunday and Monday. Another upper trough
enters the Pacific northwest Monday night and moves into the plains
Overall, the extended period will be dry. A cold front will move
through on Saturday but will be lacking moisture. Otherwise surface
high pressure will be in control of the Arkansas weather. The cold
front that moves into the plains Tuesday will bring the next
possible chance of rain...after Tuesday. Near normal to slightly
above normal temperatures are expected through the period.
at this time, it appears there will be little if any appreciable
chance of rain in the next seven days. Humidity the next couple of
days will bottom out below 40 percent, but moisture will increase
a little bit by the end of this week. Though fuel moisture is
low, forecast minimum humidity and 20-foot winds are expected to
remain below critical thresholds into next week.