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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
351 am CDT Monday Jul 25 2016


Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, as well as a temperature forecast. Convection chances do
come up with potential shortwave energy moving through the
region, as temperatures lower a bit due to clouds and better
chances of rain.

The main upper high pressure ridge has moved west and centered
over the southern rockies, while weaker upper ridging was to the
east of Arkansas. This has set up a northwest upper flow and weak low
pressure troughing over the region. Current convection over
northeastern Kansas and northern MO is moving east to southeast in the
upper flow. Moisture levels remain up over Arkansas with surface dew
point temperatures in the lower 70s. Some mid and upper clouds
with isolated fog was seen early this morning over Arkansas. A weak
frontal boundary was located over southeast Kansas to central MO.


Short through Tuesday night

The upper pattern holds with a northwest flow and weak upper low
pressure troughing into the region. This will allow some energy to
move into Arkansas. Short range models have the best chances of
convection today over western Arkansas today, as shortwave energy moves
through the upper flow. Also the frontal boundary is forecast to
sag southward into AR, mainly northwest Arkansas today through Tuesday.
Forecast trends this way with the highest pop over western to
lowest in the east. Heat of the day will also help develop
convection while plenty of moisture remains in place. 00z klzk
sounding had a precip water value over 2 inches. Recent days have
seen an isolated strong to severe storm, and slow movement of
storms creating some localized flooding. This trend will continue
today and Tuesday. Highs will be closer to normal values to a bit
above, and heat index values will also be lower due to the clouds
and rain.


Long term...Wednesday through Sunday

The long term period will begin with high pressure aloft over The
Four Corners area and over Bermuda. For much of the period there
will be a weak upper level trough over the Midwest and plains. With
Arkansas being between the two highs, expect more unsettled weather
with this pattern and better rain chances for the period. This
should lead to mcss moving through the state. The models show the
upper ridge building over the mid south for the weekend. This would
put the storm track slightly north of Arkansas for the weekend...
resulting in lower rain chances.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for mid week into next
weekend. Without being directly beneath either ridge, temperatures
will be closer to normal values. High temperatures will be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s...and lows in the lower to mid 70s.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 92 74 92 73 / 50 30 40 20
Camden Arkansas 93 74 95 74 / 50 20 30 20
Harrison Arkansas 88 72 88 71 / 50 30 40 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 92 75 94 74 / 50 30 30 20
Little Rock Arkansas 94 75 94 76 / 50 30 30 20
Monticello Arkansas 94 76 95 75 / 50 20 30 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 91 73 92 73 / 50 30 30 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 90 73 89 72 / 50 30 40 20
Newport Arkansas 93 75 93 75 / 50 30 40 20
Pine Bluff Arkansas 93 74 93 74 / 50 20 30 20
Russellville Arkansas 92 75 93 74 / 50 30 30 20
Searcy Arkansas 93 75 94 74 / 50 30 30 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 93 76 94 75 / 50 20 30 20

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.


Short term...59 / long term...51

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