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Area forecast discussion...update
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
545 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Aviation...

Areas of MVFR ceilings with VFR ceilings will be seen over the next
24 hours. Isolated to at times scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms will be seen this evening and tonight. Due to
uncertainty, only used vcsh in tafs. Toward Tuesday morning some
areas of IFR will also form with patchy fog. Winds will be east to
south at 5 to 15 mph tonight, becoming more southeast to south at 5
to 15 mph toward Tuesday morning. Also, a low level jet will set up
tonight over AR, and wind shear will be see in lower levels at all
taf sites. (59)

&&

Prev discussion.../ issued 240 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

Short term...tonight through Thursday night
data from local radars indicate scattered convection affecting
southern sections of the forecast area. Additional storms were
noted across northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana. This
activity was located to the north of a warm front, which will be
moving north overnight. Some additional activity will be possible
overnight, as a low level jet increases across an increasing
unstable atmosphere.

Forecast concern will be timing, and magnitude of severe
convection to affect the forecast area late Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Forecast soundings for Tuesday afternoon and evening are
quite supportive of supercell development. The question will be if
limited large scale forcing can support discrete cellular
development. An approaching cold front will support qlcs
development, which will sweep from west to east by early
Wednesday.

&&

Long term...Friday through Monday
lingering cool air expected across the area Friday into portions of
Saturday as surface high pressure lingers across the region Friday
before making a slow eastward shift on Saturday. Expect temperatures
to start out seasonal with a slow warming trend taking place.

Aloft, 500mb flow will be mostly zonal with no systems approaching
the state until the Sunday/Monday timeframe. That is when the flow
shifts more southwesterly and a few weak impulses appear to the west
of the state. Some rain chances will be seen sun/Mon as low pressure
develops in the plains and a cold front slowly approaches the state.
Decent surface pressure gradient could lead to some stronger
southwesterly winds at the end of the period.
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 59 76 58 63 / 40 50 60 30
Camden Arkansas 63 81 61 70 / 30 50 60 30
Harrison Arkansas 57 74 49 57 / 40 50 60 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 61 76 56 66 / 30 50 60 20
Little Rock Arkansas 61 78 60 68 / 30 50 60 30
Monticello Arkansas 64 81 65 72 / 30 40 50 50
Mount Ida Arkansas 62 75 57 63 / 30 50 60 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 57 75 53 60 / 40 50 60 20
Newport Arkansas 59 76 58 64 / 40 60 70 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 62 80 62 70 / 30 50 60 40
Russellville Arkansas 59 76 56 65 / 30 50 60 20
Searcy Arkansas 59 77 58 68 / 40 50 60 30
Stuttgart Arkansas 61 79 61 69 / 30 50 60 40
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

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