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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
222 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Short term...tonight through Monday
scattered convection is ongoing/developing across northern and
western Arkansas this afternoon. Expect this to fill in somewhat and
propogate southward through mostly the western half of the state
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Will carry chance
pops into the eastern parts of the forecast area but it appears
western Arkansas will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
today.

An upper ridge will begin to build back into the region from the
southwest on Sunday. Northwest flow aloft will likely bring one more
mesoscale convective system into the state during the day tomorrow...so will continue with
chance pops for Sunday across the eastern half of the forecast area.
Further west...will hold on to slight chances. The ridge will not be
firmly established by tomorrow afternoon just yet so think some
isolated storms could pop there.

Temperature wise...warm overnight temperatures and highs in the low
90s will be seen.
&&

Long term...Monday night through Saturday
there's not much I can say without sounding like a broken record,
but here GOES.

The upper ridge will expand through the week, choking off large-scale
moisture, allowing for only isolated/widely scattered diurnal
convection. Humidity will remain high, with afternoon heat index
values approaching the 100-105 degree range. Fortunately, the
ridge's influence will start to diminish in the weekend,
bringing a better shot at showers/storms to the area.
&&

Fire weather...
no significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days. Minimum humidity will remain high...generally above
the 50th percentile. There will be several chances for isolated to
widely scattered afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest chances in the next 48 hours, and
next weekend.
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 73 92 75 95 / 30 40 20 20
Camden Arkansas 75 95 76 96 / 20 30 10 20
Harrison Arkansas 69 89 72 93 / 30 40 20 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 75 94 76 95 / 30 30 10 20
Little Rock Arkansas 75 94 76 96 / 30 30 20 20
Monticello Arkansas 76 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 30
Mount Ida Arkansas 74 93 75 94 / 30 30 10 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 70 90 73 94 / 30 40 20 20
Newport Arkansas 73 91 74 94 / 20 40 20 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 74 93 75 94 / 20 40 20 30
Russellville Arkansas 74 94 75 96 / 30 40 20 20
Searcy Arkansas 74 93 74 95 / 30 40 20 30
Stuttgart Arkansas 74 93 76 94 / 20 40 20 30
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...57 / long term...64

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