Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 klzk 112029 
afdlzk

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
229 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Short term...tonight thru Wednesday...
a dry cold front is pushing thru the state this afternoon, and
will usher in cooler and drier air for the short term period.
Highs tomorrow will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than today in many
locations, and overnight lows will drop back down to below
freezing.

Aloft, a northwesterly flow will continue thru the period, with a shortwave
rippling across the area tonight into tomorrow morning.

With a lack of surface moisture, the frontal passage and associated
shortwave should result in no precip chances, and just a bit of mid
and high clouds from time to time.

&&

Long term...Wednesday night through Sunday...
little change to the current long term forecast. Long term begins
Wednesday night with a cold front approaching northwest portions
of the state. With little available moisture to work with no
precipitation is expected with the passage of this front...just a
wind shift and cooler temperatures will be seen.

Thursday night the GFS produces a bit of wintry precipitation across
northeast Arkansas as the upper level low swings through the area.
We saw a similar setup last week...however conditions were too dry
to produce any snow. Expect a similar situation to develop and at
this point have kept snow out of the forecast. European model (ecmwf) also supports
this conclusion.

High pressure will slide into the region on Friday and allow a brief
warm up on Saturday before the next cold front moves through the
state. At this point the European model (ecmwf) continues to keep things dry while
the GFS produces a half of an inch of rain. Again this far out and
the with the GFS being way to wet lately...trended pops down with
only slight chance pops in southeast Arkansas.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 32 47 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
Camden Arkansas 36 57 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 29 43 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 36 54 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 36 52 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 39 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 32 54 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 29 44 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
Newport Arkansas 34 45 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 36 53 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 35 50 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 32 49 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 37 51 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-sharp-stone-Van Buren-white-Woodruff-
Yell.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations