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fxus64 klzk 221929 
afdlzk

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
229 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Short term...tonight through Sunday night

Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this afternoon
as overall pattern looks to be pretty much locked in through the
short term period. With no major differences noted between the
models this afternoon, a blend of solutions is preferred.

Highly amplified upper pattern remains in place this afternoon,
characterized by an elongated upper ridge over the area with deep
troughing over the western half of the naton. With little change in
this pattern expected on Saturday, another warm and humid day is
expected with little if any convection expected. Temperatures will
continue to run well above normal considering Saturday will be the
first full day of fall.

Western trough forecast to deepen through the period with a weak
upper low approaching the forecast area from southeast on Sunday.
Moisture will increase slightly and with upper low in the vicinity,
a slight chance of diurnally driven convection is in the forecast
for Sunday. With increased cloud cover and chances of precipitation
in the forecast on Sunday, temperatres will be slightly cooler but
only by a degree or two.
&&

Long term...Monday through Friday...

The start of the long term period can be characterized by continued
above normal temperatures and only isolated chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity. The pattern aloft will see continued ridging
across the south and east with Maria slowly drifting north off the
Atlantic coast. There will be a weak disturbance aloft situated
southeast of the state which will help spark a few showers and
thunderstorms. Out west, continued troughing and active weather will
be seen.

By mid week, changes will be seen across Arkansas as the upper ridge
becomes more compact and moves southward. At the surface, a front
will make its way through the state on Wednesday with high pressure
building in its wake. Unfortunately, there won't be a significant
amount of moisture in place and widespread appreciable rain isn't
expected.

In the wake of the front, cooler air will spill into the area,
making it feel more like fall out there. Other concerns into the
long term period and beyond include potential drought development
and locally increased fire weather concerns. There just doesn't
appear to be any indication from long term model solutions that
would provide much needed early fall rains to turn this drying trend
around.

$$

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 69 90 68 89 / 0 10 10 20
Camden Arkansas 71 92 70 91 / 0 10 10 20
Harrison Arkansas 67 88 66 86 / 0 10 10 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 71 91 71 89 / 0 10 10 20
Little Rock Arkansas 71 91 71 90 / 0 10 10 20
Monticello Arkansas 71 91 70 90 / 0 20 10 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 68 90 68 90 / 0 10 10 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 68 90 68 87 / 0 10 10 20
Newport Arkansas 69 91 69 89 / 0 10 10 20
Pine Bluff Arkansas 70 91 70 90 / 0 10 10 20
Russellville Arkansas 70 91 70 90 / 0 10 10 20
Searcy Arkansas 69 90 69 90 / 0 10 10 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 69 90 70 89 / 0 10 10 20
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

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