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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
258 PM CDT Thu may 25 2017

Short term...tonight through Saturday
upper low pressure over the northeast U.S. And southern Canada will
move east tonight as an upper ridge builds over Arkansas. The upper
ridge will move east of Arkansas Friday and southwest flow will
return to the state. An upper trough will enter The Rockies Friday
night and move into the plains Saturday.

Surface low pressure will drag a cold front into the plains tonight
and a warm front will develop out ahead of it. Warmer temperatures
are expected Friday in the lower 80s to lower 90s and a bit cooler
Saturday with more cloud cover. Clouds will increase over the state
late tonight and Friday morning. Dew points are in the 50s currently
but will increase on Friday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Friday afternoon
in the north...spreading south Friday evening. The cold front nears
the northwest corner of Arkansas Saturday morning. This will bring
increased chances for thunderstorms. By afternoon strong instability
is expected along with deep-layer shear. Given this...strong to
severe thunderstorms will become probable...with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats along with a few tornadoes.

&&

Long term...Saturday night through Thursday
strong to severe convection is expected across at least northwest
sections early in the period, focused by the previously mentioned
frontal boundary.

Severe potential on Sunday will be strongly modulated by the amount
of convective overturning and residual cloud cover from Saturday
night's activity.

The cold front will continue to move slowly south through late
Monday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will still
prevail during this period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 63 84 70 84 / 0 20 30 40
Camden Arkansas 66 89 73 89 / 0 10 10 20
Harrison Arkansas 63 83 68 83 / 10 20 30 40
Hot Springs Arkansas 66 87 73 87 / 0 10 20 20
Little Rock Arkansas 65 87 73 87 / 0 10 20 30
Monticello Arkansas 66 90 73 89 / 0 10 10 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 66 86 73 86 / 0 10 20 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 62 82 68 83 / 10 20 30 40
Newport Arkansas 63 85 72 85 / 0 20 30 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 65 89 73 88 / 0 10 10 20
Russellville Arkansas 64 85 71 85 / 0 20 30 30
Searcy Arkansas 64 86 71 86 / 0 20 20 30
Stuttgart Arkansas 65 89 74 88 / 0 10 20 20
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

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