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afdlzk

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
528 am CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Aviation...
IFR to MVFR conditions will improve later this morning, as the
gradient increases. All areas should be VFR by mid to late
morning. Winds will be southerly around 10-15 knots sustained,
with higher gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Cold front will move into the
area late tonight or early Friday. Low level wind shear will
develop, with southwest winds around 40-50 knots at fl020. Tafs
already out.
&&

Previous discussion...(issued 320 am CST Thu Feb 23 2017)

Short term...today through Friday night
by Standard English...the word "whopper" is usually defined as
something that is extremely or unusually large. However, around
here, it can also be defined as a forecast temperature bust of ten
degrees or more. What can I say...yesterday, the clouds held over
the area, and the atmosphere once again proved that it will have
the final say over any numbers the models or forecasters such as
yours truly will devise. Such is the nature of this particular
field I suppose--if you can't take being humbled on a regular
basis, you're in the wrong line of work.

Anyway, pressure gradient over the area will increase today, as
high pressure over the Tennessee Valley slowly moves eastward, and
low pressure deepens out in the plains, and drags a cold front
toward the region. Winds will be gusty and out of the south, and
this will let clouds scatter out faster, and drive temperatures up
to near-record highs, particularly over central and southern
Arkansas.

Frontal boundary will move across Arkansas on Friday. But, with
very little time for deep-layer moisture return and not much upper
level support, not really expecting any precipitation. Humidity
will decrease rapidly behind the front, as high pressure moves
into the region. Colder air will follow the front as well, with
freezing temperatures possible in the northwest and west by early
Saturday morning.

Long term...Saturday through Wednesday
upper low pressure will be over the Great Lakes Saturday with
another upper low near the West Coast. Zonal flow will be over the
mid south but as the western upper low moves east into The Rockies
Sunday, the upper flow across the south will become southwest. The
upper low moves into the plains before washing out over the Midwest
Monday. A broad upper trough moves into The Rockies Tuesday and into
the plains Wednesday.

Models agree that after the quiet weather through most of the
weekend, the latter part of the forecast period will become more
active. Surface high pressure will be over the area to begin the
period. Moisture will increase over the state Sunday and chances for
showers will increase in the northwest late in the day. The rain
will spread eastward Sunday night. A cold front moves into the state
Monday and will keep shower and thunderstorm chances over the
area...as it should stall over south Arkansas. Yet another cold
front moves into the state Tuesday night and exits Wednesday.

Saturday will be cool with highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. A
warming trend will begin on Sunday with highs peaking on Tuesday.
Temperatures then cool slightly for Wednesday.

Fire weather...
low humidity and elevated winds will be the primary fire weather
issues. Pressure gradient over the area will result in elevated
winds today and Friday. As a frontal boundary passes through on
Friday, humidity will rapidly decrease behind it. At this time,
however, winds are expected to remain below critical thresholds.
Humidity will recover early next week, as another system
approaches the region.

Climate...
near-record highs are possible today, as most locations top out in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. The locations listed below could come
within about five degrees of record daily high temperatures for
February 23rd.

Location record high 2/23
Little Rock 82 in 2012
Jacksonville 82 in 2012
North Little Rock 80 in 2012
Russellville 80 in 2012
Mount Ida 83 in 1996
Pine Bluff 84 in 1930
Monticello 85 in 2012
Batesville Airport 81 in 1996
Hot Springs Airport 80 in 2012
Stuttgart Airport 82 in 2012

&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Cleburne-Conway-Desha-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-
Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-
Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Perry-Polk-Pope-
prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-sharp-stone-Van Buren-white-
Woodruff-Yell.
&&

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