Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
630 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017
remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy will traverse Arkansas
during the taf period, with prevailing conditions largely MVFR to
IFR. After Cindy passes on Friday, focus will then shift to
convection associated with a cold front moving in from the plains.
Winds will be gusty as Cindy passes, switching around to the west
and northwest afterward.
Previous discussion...(issued 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017)
Short term...tonight through Saturday
forecast philosophy remains constant during this period. Latest
satellite, radar, and surface data indicate the center of the
remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy is just south of Shreveport. This
system will make a turn to the northeast early the forecast
Overall moisture, which is quite anomalously high, associated with
this system will be available to support efficient rainfall
producing convection overnight and on Friday. Forecasts have been
refined to indicate the expected timing and locations of the heavy
The potential for excessive rainfall should be move east of the
forecast area by Friday evening.
Long term...Saturday night through Wednesday
a much quieter wx pattern wl be noted over Arkansas for much of the period.
The aforementioned cold front wl have shifted to the S of the area
by Sat night, with drier air advecting into the state. Sfc high
pres wl persist over the mid-south heading into the early part of
the work week. Northwesterly flow aloft is fcst to bring an impulse or two
southeastward thru the area. However, moisture lvls are not all that
impressive at this point, so left out any mention of precip.
By the middle of next week, the sfc high wl have shifted far enough
to the east to allow S/southeasterly winds to return. This wl result in warm and
more humid conds, with just an outside chance of a stray shower or
storm. But again, most locations wl remain dry.
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Arkansas-Bradley-