Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 270850
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
350 am CDT Sat may 27 2017
Short term...today through Sunday night
A small cluster of strong/severe storms conts to affect far northern AR,
along the MO border, early this morning. Large hail has been seen
with these storms at times. Looking at this small complex of storms
to cont working to the east/southeast thru the daybreak. The residual bndry
from this activity could play a role in convective trends heading
into tngt over the forecast area. Elsewhere this mrng, mostly cloudy skies were
observed, along with warm temps.
The primary focus for this fcst period wl cont to be thunderstorm
chances heading into tngt and sun, along with the potential for
strong and severe storms.
Model fcst parameters rmn consistent today with regard to severe
weather potential. SBCAPE values in excess of 4000 j/kg are fcst to
be in place later today, although a capping inversion wl tend to
inhibit most storm development thru much of the aftn hrs. That is
expected to change tngt as a cold front wl drop southward toward AR, along
with an upr lvl impulse, allowing for rapid storm formation to our north
and west by early this evening.
This scenario conts to favor a complex of storms eventually working
into northern Arkansas early tngt, with damaging winds and very large hail
being the primary concerns. Cannot rule out isolated/short-lived
tornadoes forming along bowing line segments. The complex is
expected to continue working to the southeast thru central/southern Arkansas late tngt
into sun mrng, along with the severe weather potential.
The actual cold front wl finally makes its way southeastward thru Arkansas sun and
Sun night. Rain chances wl linger over most of the state on sun, but
decrease FM the northwest late in the day and sun ngt as drier air begins
to advect in behind the front.
Long term...Monday through Friday
The cold front will be dropping south of the County Warning Area at the start of the
long term period...with some lingering chances for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
forecast for far southeastern and southern portions of the County Warning Area. Drier and calmer
conditions will be seen for the rest of Mon and through early Tue.
However...the front will attempt to lift back north by late Tue into
Wed...with some chances for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain returning to the forecast.
These increased precip chances will then continue through the rest
of the forecast as the warm front lifts north of the state...with
weak upper disturbances moving overhead.