Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 klwx 160821
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
321 am EST Mon Jan 16 2017
High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A
stationary front over the southern mid-Atlantic states will move
north as a warm front Tuesday. A weak cold front will push through
the area Wednesday. Brief high pressure returns Thursday followed
by another system Friday.
Near term /today/...
Extensive cloud cover today as moisture is trapped between high
pressure centered over northern New England...a weak cold front
over the Carolinas...and a west-northwest-east-southeast running jet stream over the
northeastern US. These are all combining to create clouds over the
mid Atlantic along with rain showers across central Virginia. The
showers are also tracking to the east-southeast so the major airports do not
look to be impacted.
Cloudy skies today with highs making it into the mid/upper 40s.
Short term /tonight through Wednesday/...
Skies will continue to be cloudy tonight and Tuesday. An upper
level short wave will push through the region Tuesday. Have
increased pops slightly for Tuesday...primarily in likely category
although we are on the cusp of categorical and suspect later
shifts will trend in that direction. Temperatures are expected to
climb well into the 50s on southwesterly flow so the only p-type
we're thinking about is rain. Qpf's should be under an inch.
The chance of showers will continue Tuesday night before coming to
an end Wednesday as the short wave tracks to the NE. Winter will
remain on hiatus. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 40s...highs
Wednesday of 55-60 will be about 15 degrees above normal.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
The latter half of the week and into the weekend will continue to be
dominated by long wave troughing out in the western US and long wave
ridging along the eastern Seaboard. However this does become
increasingly convoluted as time GOES on.
Brief surface ridging will follow the early week frontal system and
move over the mid-Atlantic states for Wednesday night and Thursday.
This should lead to dry conditions and mild temperatures, with highs
progged right now to be in the 50s.
The next system however will quickly amplify in the plains on
Thursday and will push eastward across the region for the end of the
week with increasing chances for showers on Friday. Temperatures
will still be mild, so there is very little to no threat of wintry
Uncertainty grows as pattern becomes more convoluted by the weekend,
but next best chance of rain at this time appears to be Sunday as
next system makes its approach from the southwest. Temperatures
over the weekend will remain mild with highs around 50f.
Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
Plenty of cloud cover today courtesy of high pressure over New
England and a stationary boundary over the Carolinas. Ceilings are
expected to be in the MVFR range today...possibly dropping to IFR
tonight. Rain showers and diminished ceilings are expected
Tuesday. Improvement should happen Wednesday.
VFR expected Wednesday night through Thursday night under high
pressure. Sub-VFR conditions then possible Friday with low clouds
and rain showers developing.
Light winds foreseen through midweek. Water temperatures are in
the mid 30s.
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions return for Wednesday night through Thursday night
with next chance of small craft conditions on Friday with developing
District of Columbia...none.