Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 klwx 252340 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
640 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

high pressure will return to the area Sunday through early next
week. A warm front will then lift north into the area Tuesday
into Wednesday followed by another cold front Wednesday night.


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch was canceled as strong thunderstorms
have moved east of the area. Gusty winds will continue through
the evening. Lows will ultimately bottom out in the 30s, with
some 20s west of the Blue Ridge. A period of upslope snow
showers could produce localized amounts up to an inch west of
the Allegheny Front.


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
high pressure moves in from the west Sunday, allowing winds to
gradually relax. Highs will be much cooler but closer to normal
in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Lows will fall back to the upper
20s and 30s Sunday night as the high begins to move east.

While no well defined system is expected for Monday into Monday
night, there will be increased isentropic lift, and an inverted
trough may develop along the Carolina coast to southeast Virginia. Will have
gradually increasing chances of showers through the period,
highest S/east of District of Columbia Monday night. Temperatures will gradually warm
back up as well.


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
a storm system and its associated front will move across the
region and to the East Coast Tuesday then offshore Tuesday night.
High pressure will push in behind its associated cold front,
briefly, before the next storm system moves across the region
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The second storm's cold front
should push across the area Wednesday night. While timing and
coverage of rain showers is a little uncertain, the best chance for
rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be Wednesday.

As the main trough of low pressure pivots across the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, cooler and drier air will follow
with high pressure building in from the west. Some upslope snow
showers could evolve as well through the day Thursday.

Another weaker storm system is expected to push into the area on
Friday and bring a chance for some rain. By Friday night and
Saturday, a strong ridge of high pressure should build in from the
northwest. Colder and drier air will ensue.


Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
expect a bit of a lull in the winds before colder air rushes in
on northwest winds. The peak period likely will be during the
evening hours, when 30-35 kt once again possible.

Sunday, it will still be breezy, but not as strong as this
evening. Gusts 15-20 kt most likely. Otherwise VFR conditions
expected. No major impacts are forecast Monday and Monday night
either, although there will be increasing chances for some light
rain showers.

MVFR conditions Tuesday into Tuesday night. IFR and LIFR conditions
possible Wednesday with the chance of more numerous rain showers or
perhaps a rumble of thunder. MVFR conditions Wednesday night. Winds
south 5 knots Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds southwest 5 to
10 knots Wednesday and Wednesday night.


continuing gusts near gale force possible through the evening.
Gale Warning through 1 am for all waters.

Small Craft Advisory conditions then continue through Sunday afternoon. Brief
lull Sunday night with high pressure, but southerly winds could
again reach Small Craft Advisory criteria on Monday into Monday night.

System moving through Tuesday/Wednesday may result in continued
Small Craft Advisory conditions as southerly flow continues.


record high maximum and minimum temperatures for February 25:
BWI 83f (1930), 52f (1930)
dca 84f (1930), 54f (1891)
iad 79f (2000), 47f (2000)

Warmest februaries (average temperature)
dca BWI iad
1. 46.9 (1976) 44.0 (1976) 42.1 (1990)
2. 45.2 (1990) 43.9 (1949) 41.1 (1976)
3. 44.7 (1997) 43.3 (1890) 41.0 (1998)
4. 44.3 (2012) 42.7 (1932) 40.9 (2012)
5. 43.9 (1949) 42.6 (1909) 40.5 (1997)

Feb 2017 (through the 24th)
dca: 47.1 bwi: 43.7 iad: 44.5

Warmest Winters (dec 1-Feb 28/29)
dca BWI iad
1. 44.7 (1931-32) 45.3 (1931-32) 40.0 (2011-12)
2. 44.3 (1889-90) 44.4 (1889-90) 39.7 (2001-02)
3. 43.3 (2011-12) 42.4 (1948-49) 39.4 (1997-98)
4. 43.2 (2001-02) 41.9 (1949-50) 39.0 (2015-16)
5. 42.8 (1949-50) 41.3 (1879-80) 38.3 (1990-91)

Winter 2016-17 (through Feb 24)
dca: 43.7 bwi: 40.3 iad: 40.7

Driest februaries (total precipitation)
dca BWI iad
1. 0.35 (2009) 0.26 (2009) 0.25 (1978)
2. 0.42 (1978) 0.36 (2002) 0.35 (2009)
3. 0.47 (2002) 0.56 (1978) 0.46 (2002)
4. 0.62 (1901) 0.63 (1977) 0.49 (1977)
5. 0.66 (1977) 0.65 (1901) 0.68 (1968)

Feb 2017 (through the 24th)
dca: 0.16 bwi: 0.46 iad: 0.25


Lwx watches/warnings/advisories...
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 4 PM EST Sunday for
Gale Warning until 1 am EST Sunday for anz530>543.


near term...mse/hts

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations