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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
400 am EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

an upper trough will cross the region this morning. Surface high
pressure will be moving in as low pressure strengthens as it moves
away to the NE. The result will be gusty winds. A reinforcing cold
front moves through Monday with cool high pressure to follow for
mid week. A weak warm front nearing the area may bring some
showers Thursday.


Near term /today/...

Main rain shield with the low pressure system has moved east of
our area. That just leaves the scattered showers with the upper
trough this morning. After that trough axis shifts east of US,
winds will gradually diminish with a partly to mostly sunny and
cool afternoon.


Short term /Sunday through Monday/...

High pressure will produce a pleasant fall day for Sunday. A
reinforcing cold front moves through on Monday with cool temps for
midweek. No precip expected with the front however.


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...

High pressure will settle over the mid Atlantic states Tuesday into
Wednesday, providing sunny skies and cool temperatures. Its still
looking like a good radiational cooling setup for Tuesday night,
making it the most obvious choice for upcoming frost potential.

The forecast for the end of the week not clear-cut at all, as
GFS/European model (ecmwf) depicting distinctly different solutions. Am not certain
either is all that likely. Even the various gefs members in complete
disarray. Will be maintaining some semblance of continuity in that
there will be pops at the end of the forecast from a transitory
shortwave and surface reflection. Fairly low confidence at this
time as to how strong this cold front will be.


Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/...

Gusty northwest winds to contend with this morning...gradually
diminishing this afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions through the
weekend and early week. Aside from patchy early morning valley
fog, VFR Tuesday- Wednesday under high pressure.



Gale warnings for the waters today for northwest winds with gusts to
35kts. Small Craft Advisory level winds will persist for most of
the waters into Tuesday morning before high pressure builds
across the waters. Otherwise, diminishing north winds Tuesday
becoming light Wednesday.


Lwx watches/warnings/advisories...
District of Columbia...none.
Virginia...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for vaz025>027-029-503-504-
WV...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for wvz055-501-502-505-506.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 2 am to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
Gale Warning until 2 am EDT Sunday for anz531>534-539>541-543.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for anz530-535>538-


near term...cas
short term...cas
long term...heights

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