Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 klwx 261825
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
225 PM EDT sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis...a front will remain stationary across the area through this
evening then return as a warm front late tonight and Monday.
Another cold front will cross the area late Tuesday. High
pressure will build over the region Thursday.
Near term /through tonight/...moisture convergence will
increase across the southwest and west with rain/showers moving
into areas west of the Blue Ridge early this evening and east
of the Blue Ridge overnight as warm lifts north into
Pennsylvania. Areas of fog are also possible. Warm front clears
the area by daybreak Mon if not sooner.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...low clouds will
erode during the morning with breaks in the clouds expected in
the afternoon. A weak convergence zone will exist/remain and
combined with some instability could be enough for scattered
showers. Better forcing and moisture spreads across the area
late Mon night and Tue with approach of low pressure and
associated cdfnt for better coverage of showers and
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... long term period starts dry
as high pressure builds over our region Wednesday into Thursday
with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Conditions will
deteriorate Thursday night into Friday as a low pressure system
tracks east-northeast from Missouri to near Lake Erie. Its
associated warm front will stay south of the mid-Atlantic into
Friday before lifting Friday night. Low pressure develops near
or off of the Delmarva Peninsula Friday night into Saturday as
unsettled conditions continue over our region. Conditions
improve during the day on Saturday as low pressure moves away
from the coast. Dry conditions continue into Sunday.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...IFR conditions tonight
with cigs/vsbys improving to MVFR/VFR Mon. Chance of rain is
greatest after midnight at main terminals. Showers and possible
T-storms expected again on Tue.
Dry/VFR conditions expected for Wednesday and Thursday before
rain approaches the area Thursday night, possibly bringing sub-
VFR conditions over the terminals into Friday.
Marine...winds are not doing much right now so cancelled Small Craft Advisory.
However, winds are expected to increase again across the
southern waters late tonight so issue Small Craft Advisory for southern waters.
Dry conditions expected for Wednesday and Thursday before rain
approaches the area Thursday night, bringing showers over the
waters into Friday. Wind gusts will be near the Small Craft
Advisory threshold during parts of this period... therefore Small Craft Advisory
possible at times.
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Monday for anz533-534-537-541>543.