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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
1000 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

high pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday night.
A cold front will cross the area Thursday afternoon and evening.
High pressure returns Friday and Friday night.


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
high pressure settling overhead tonight is providing a good setup
for radiational cooling. Leaned toward the colder side of guidance
for this reason. Min temps will range from the mid to upper 20s in
the Allegheny the lower and middle 30s across most
other the lower 40s in downtown Washington and
Baltimore. A freeze warning is in effect overnight for northern
Maryland...portions of northern Virginia...eastern West Virginia
and the Potomac Highlands of Virginia. A frost advisory is in
effect for the Washington and Baltimore metropolitan areas into
portions of central Virginia.


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...
high pressure will remain overhead for Wednesday...bringing more
dry and cool conditions. However...high and mid-level clouds will
increase well ahead of low pressure tracking through the Midwest.

The low will track into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night
while high pressure settles to our east. A return flow will setup
and with more clouds around...min temps should be milder compared
to Tuesday night.

The cold front associated with the low will pass through on
Thursday into Thursday evening...bringing some showers. Blustery
and chillier conditions are expected behind the front overnight.


Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure will build over the region Friday into Saturday
before another wave of low pressure passes to the north during the
middle of the weekend. Similar to the Thursday system, most of the
forcing looks to stay north and moisture return is meager at best.
Not expecting much in the way of precipitation over the weekend
with this second system as a result, but breezy conditions and a
reinforcing shot of cool air can behind a secondary front

High pressure will return to the area early next week, but with the
center of the ridging building to the south that should result in
moderating temperatures.


Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR with light winds are expected tonight through Wednesday.
Southerly winds will develop Wednesday night and increase for
Thursday ahead of a cold front. A few showers are likely Thursday
into Thursday evening. MVFR cigs are possible as well during this
time. VFR conditions are expected behind the cold front late
Thursday night with gusty northwest winds.

Mainly VFR expected Friday-Saturday with northwesterly winds
10-15 knots.


gusty winds have mostly diminished this evening as high pressure
continues building over the waters. Southerly winds will increase
ahead of a cold front Thursday. The cold front will pass through
Thursday evening and gusty northwest winds are expected behind the
front overnight Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed for the waters Thursday through Thursday night. A Gale
Warning may be needed for portions of the waters late Thursday and
Thursday night.

Small Craft Advisory conditions may persist into the first
half of the weekend as a secondary frontal system crosses the area
in response to low pressure passing to the north.


Lwx watches/warnings/advisories...
District of Columbia...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for dcz001.
Maryland...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for mdz011-013-
Freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for mdz003>006-
Virginia...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for vaz025-026-
Freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for vaz027>031-
WV...freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for wvz050>053-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 3 am EDT Wednesday for anz531>534-


near term...bjl/rcm
short term...bjl
long term...dfh

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