Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 klwx 210045
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
845 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017
high pressure will remain in control of the region
through early next week. A strong cold front will move through
the area on Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
high pressure will remain overhead tonight...bringing mainly
clear skies along with light winds. Another good setup for
radiational cooling is expected with lows ranging from the mid
to upper 40s in the valleys and rural areas to the mid and upper
50s in urban areas.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
high pressure at the sfc and aloft will remain in control over
the region through Monday maintaining fair weather with pleasant
afternoons and cool nights.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
Monday starts dry with southerly flow and temperatures rising
to the mid-70s for most locations over our County Warning Area. A strong cold
front approaches from the west later on Monday and into Tuesday
as low pressure deepens tracking north-NE through the front. A deep
trough will settle over the eastern Continental U.S. And slowly push east.
Precipitation associated to this system could start as early as
Monday night, but the cold front will move east across our region on
Tuesday, when the heavier precipitation is expected. Current
guidance has precipitable water values between 1 and 1.5 inches. Cold air advection
behind the front and a tight pressure gradient will allow for colder
temperatures and gusty winds at times. High temperatures will be in
the 60s and 70s, with Wednesday and Thursday being the coldest
days... only reaching the low 60s or 50s at higher elevations.
Upper trough axis will move across over our region Wednesday into
Thursday, with some showers possible over our area. High pressure
builds in into Friday.
Aviation /01z Saturday through Wednesday/...
no significant wx expected into early next week under high
pressure surface and aloft.
VFR/dry conditions expected for part of Monday. Precipitation
expected Monday night into Tuesday bringing sub-VFR conditions
high pressure in control into early next week with excellent
No Small Craft Advisory expected on Monday. Gale conditions
possible on Tuesday on strong srly winds.
District of Columbia...none.