Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
244 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017
A cold front will pass through the area this evening. High
pressure will build into the mid Atlantic Tuesday before moving
offshore Wednesday. Another cold front will approach the area
Thursday before passing through Friday into Friday night. High
pressure is expected to return for the weekend.
Near term /tonight/...
A thin line of storms has developed over PA into northern WV.
This could have some impact in our forecast area, but the bulk
of the energy should stay to our north. Have scattered/isolated
pops in the forecast progressing from west to east during the
late afternoon/evening. If there is a threat with these in our
area it will be gusty winds.
Afterwards some pretty nice weather for late July - the
climatologically hottest part of the year. Dewpoints will drop
into the lower to mid 60s by sunrise. Skies will be mostly clear
by morning. Lows west of I-95 will be in the mid to upper 60s,
lower 70s east.
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
This will lead into a Tuesday with plenty of sunshine, dewpoints
in the lower 60s, and air temperatures reaching the lower to mid
Pleasant weather continues Tuesday night with lows in the mid
60s. Wednesday will see moisture begin to creep back into the
mid Atlantic as high pressure moves offshore. Highs will reach
the lower to mid 80s. And with the return moisture lows will not
be as cool, falling to the upper 60s/lower 70s.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
Warm front lifts back north through the area early Thursday, which
will bring a return to the heat and humidity...as highs climb back
near 90f and dewpoints rise back into the 70s. Increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday as cold
front and its associated upper-level trough approach and then cross
High pressure builds into the area behind the front for the weekend
into early next week. Though, low pressure developing along the
front to our south could bring some precipitation back into southeast
portions of the area Sunday. However, that is not the favored
solution at this point. Otherwise, remaining dry with highs in the
m80s and dewpoints in the 60s.
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions tonight through Wednesday. Only threat is
scattered thunderstorms this evening at all taf sites except
Showers and thunderstorms with brief flight restrictions are
possible ahead of a cold front mainly late Thursday into Friday.
Improving conditions into the weekend as high pressure builds into
Winds expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Wednesday.
This evening isolated thunderstorms may impact the Maryland
section of the Bay and the tidal Potomac.
A cold front will approach the waters Thursday into Thursday night
before passing through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible ahead of the front...especially late Thursday into Friday.
A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for portions of the waters
Thursday and Friday. Improving conditions into the weekend as high
pressure builds into the area.
District of Columbia...none.