Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 klwx 181330
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
930 am EDT Wed Oct 18 2017
high pressure will remain across the mid Atlantic through the
rest of the week and this weekend. A low pressure system may
affect the region early next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure is located directly over the region this morning,
and will slowly drift southeastward through the day. This will
lead to the development of a light south wind by the afternoon.
Otherwise sunny skies expected with high temperatures peaking a
few degrees on either side of 70 degrees.
An upper level trough will cross the area tonight, although it
will have little impact other than some additional cirrus. Dew
points will be a little higher, and some locations may be able
to hold onto a light south wind since the high will be to the
southeast. Thus expect any frost to be much more isolated, with
most locations in the upper 30s to mid 40s...and lower 50s in
Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
the center of the high will remain generally to our south and
southwest Thursday into Thursday night. The tail end of a
decaying cold front/low level trough over New England will clip
the area Thursday night, but bring little more than a few clouds
and a wind shift to the northwest. The upper level pattern will
amplify (west coast trough/East Coast ridge) Friday into Friday
night, with the surface high expanding back to the north and
High temperatures will continue to warm through the 70s.
Overnight lows will be in the 40s for most, with 50s in the
cities. Greater variation is likely Friday night though with a
more favorable radiational cooling set up.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
high pressure will be centered overhead or just to the northeast
on Saturday morning, providing light winds and mostly clear
skies. After a cool (but not as chilly as this morning) start,
it will warm into the 70s with plenty of sun. The high will
shift eastward off the coast by Sunday, with more of a
southerly flow - however, the gradient will remain weak, so not
a whole lot of change in sensible weather. A little warmer, a
few more high clouds, that's likely all the difference between
Saturday and Sunday. Overall, ideal weekend weather,
particularly for autumn.
Guidance still shows a cold front and wave of low pressure
moving toward the region early next week, but are a bit less in
sync than last night. The GFS is significantly slower than the
ec in bringing the upper low and its associated surface wave
northeastward into the region, causing Monday to be drier on the
GFS than on the ec, with a faster drying trend as we head into
the middle of the week on the ec than on the GFS. Overall, will
keep chance of showers, and heavy rain remains possible, given
strong wave and potential for training along the stalling front.
Both models also still show a very deep trough digging over the
eastern US behind the system for mid-late week next week. This
is something that would likely end the growing season across
much of the region, while also perhaps trying to get a few snow
flakes flying, especially in our higher terrain. Still, there's
a long time to watch this.
Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high pressure will remain in control through the end of the
weekend. Predominantly VFR expected, but can't rule out a brief
period of fog/br at mrb/cho the next few mornings. Otherwise
only passing cirrus is expected with winds less than 10 kt.
high pressure will remain nearby through Thursday with light
southerly winds developing. A weak front will pass by to the
north Thursday night, which will turn winds to the northwest.
Potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions will be dependent
on mixing, so the greater chance would be over the more open
waters. Winds will subside during the day on Friday as high
pressure moves back overhead, which will then generally persist
through the weekend.
anomalies have risen to around one-half to three quarters of a
foot above normal. This should keep water levels below minor
flood thresholds but it will be close for the sensitive sites of
Straits Point, Annapolis, and Washington District of Columbia. Water levels will
need to be monitored.
District of Columbia...none.