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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
259 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Synopsis...a backdoor cold front will move into the local area
this evening and stall just south of the area overnight and
Sunday before returning north as a warm front on Monday. Another
cold front will cross the area late Tuesday.

&&

Near term /through Sunday night/...backdoor cold front is
across south central Pennsylvania and will push south rest of
today crossing the local area this evening. Some low topped
showers are possible in the vcnty of the frontal zone and across
the higher elevs due to some weak instability and sfc
convergence. Clouds thicken rapidly this evening with fropa with
low clouds/cigs and some light rain especially northern areas
and along the western shore of the Chesapeake due to onshore
flow. Cloudy and much cooler sun due to cold air damming effects
and onshore flow. Light rain or drizzle in the morning then
tapering off as low level moisture erodes and cigs lift. Much
better chance for showers Sun night in area of strong surface
and moisture convergence and warm air overrunning cool surface
air.

&&

Short term /Monday through Monday night/...front lifts north as
a warm front Mon afternoon with temperatures rising back into
the 70s. Area will be in a light westerly downslope flow leading
to some clearing. Risk of showers increases again late Mon night
and Tue as low pressure and associated cdfnt crosses the area.
Enough instability is also present on Tue for a risk of
T-storms. Drying expected late Tue night behind fropa.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...front approaches from
the west on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Conditions should start drying out early on Wednesday as high
pressure builds over our region. Dry conditions continue into
Thursday before a wave of low pressure moves through the mid-
Atlantic increasing pops Thursday night and into Friday. Another
low pressure moves east towards the mid- Atlantic Friday night
into Saturday keeping rainy conditions over our region.

&&

Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...cigs will drop this
evening to IFR everywhere except at kcho and remain low through
18z sun then lift to MVFR. Showers expected Sun night
everywhere.

Cold front approaches on Tuesday, then dry conditions return
Wednesday into Thursday. Sub-VFR periods possible Tuesday into
Tuesday night, then VFR Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

Marine...winds will strengthen across the upper Chesapeake Bay
late this evening behind backdoor front. Winds remain gusty
across the nrn waters and upper Potomac River through sun. Winds
then increase again Sun night across the southern waters with
Small Craft Advisory Mon and Mon night.

Cold front approaches on Tuesday, then dry conditions return
Wednesday into Thursday. Winds are expected to remain below the
Small Craft Advisory threshold.

&&

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories...
District of Columbia...none.
Maryland...none.
Virginia...none.
WV...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT
Sunday for anz530>532-535-538>540.

&&

$$
Synopsis...lfr
near term...lfr

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