Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 klwx 290114
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
914 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017
high pressure will settle near Bermuda Thursday with hot and
humid conditions returning and persisting through the first half
of next week.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
it's a quiet night weatherwise as high pressure resides
overhead. There has been a veil of high clouds that have
overspread the region, associated with an upper-level jet
streak. These clouds have been migrating to the east along with
the responsible weather feature.
Anticipate light south flow tonight as the surface high eases
east. Therefore lows won't be as cool as the past couple of
nights, in spite of nearly clear skies, since dewpoints will be
rising. Going forecast in good shape, but will touch up a few
grids as needed.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
summerlike conditions will establish over the region tomorrow
with Bermuda surface high pressure and subtropical ridge to the
south. As a result, expect temperatures to climb into the low
90s on Thu and mid 90s on Fri. By Friday, there is enough
instability to T-storms over the mtns.
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure will move offshore the East Coast to usher in warmer
air and increasing humidity Saturday through Sunday night. There is
a chance for showers and thunderstorms each period with the better
chances during the afternoon and early evening both Saturday
A second area of high pressure will build into the region Monday and
Monday night, bringing less humid conditions.
The shower and thunderstorm chances return on the 4th of July as an
inverted trough of low pressure sets up over the region.
Temperatures will not be as warm as previous days.
By Wednesday, small pieces of energy arrive and move across the
region. The chance for a couple of showers linger.
Aviation /01z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through Friday
night. Winds will become south, possibly as high as 10 kt
sustained each afternoon. Also anticipate diurnal cumulus, with
bases around 060.
MVFR to IFR conditions are possible with showers and storms
Saturday through Sunday night.
winds on the waters 10-15 kt sustained, with the Maryland
portion of the Bay on the cusp of small craft conditions.
Southerly channeling likely tonight, with the advisory already
South flow will continue through the end of the week. Guidance
suggests that 15-20 kt gusts achievable in deep mixing Thursday
and Friday afternoon. During the diurnal minimum, channeling
will focus on the Main Channel of the Bay. Small Craft Advisory already posted as
appropriate Thursday-Thursday night, and likely will need to be
extended into/through Friday.
No marine hazards expected Saturday through Sunday night. Winds
southwest around 10 knots.
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Friday for anz530>534-
Small Craft Advisory from 10 am to 8 PM EDT Thursday for