Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klub 221110
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
510 am CST Wed Nov 22 2017
light northerly flow will give way to southwest breezes by midday.
VFR will continue with a few thin high clouds overhead while an
upper level high pressure ridge holds to our west. Rmcqueen
Previous discussion... /issued 421 am CST Wed Nov 22 2017/
the upper level ridge that has taken up residence over
socal will continue to dominate our weather over the Holiday
weekend. Southwesterly winds at the surface and northwest flow aloft
settles in for today and Thanksgiving. This will create a warming
trend over the next few days. Highs today will be in the 60s. On
Thursday highs will peak in the 70s.
Friday a surge of shortwave energy will move southeastward down the
Lee side of the upper level ridge as a surface low crosses the area.
Enhanced downslope warming and winds will create near-record warmth
and breezy conditions Friday. As a result Friday will be a near-
critical fire weather day. Friday evening/night the associated cold
front will traverse the region. Thus, high temperatures will fall a
few degrees closer to normal on Saturday. But, by Sunday the area
warms right back up above normal as the upper level ridge settles
over the Texas Panhandle.
Early next week the upper level ridge starts to move eastward as an
upper level Pacific trough moves on shore. Gradients will tighten
ahead the positively tilted trough and winds will increase on Monday
creating another critical fire weather day. Models continue to show
the upper level trough and associated cold front moving through the
area by mid-week. While this will bring a decent cool down to the
region by Wednesday precip will be kept at Bay.