Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 klub 222351 
afdlub

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
651 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Aviation...
the main aviation focus will once again be on the potential for
thunderstorms and rain with gusty outflow winds in the vicinity of the terminals
late this evening through about 07 or 08 UTC. The terminal with
the highest confidence of impact is kpvw, where we've included a
thunderstorms in the vicinity mention. A cold front will move through the area Friday
morning bringing a north-northeasterly wind shift and increasing
wind speeds during the day.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 432 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

Discussion...
the high pressure center across the Desert Southwest has weakened
just a bit and continues to be shunted further westward. To our
east, the remnants of T.C. Cindy are tracking north-northeast along the Texas/la
state line. Looking ahead, given the proximity of the high, we
will largely remain in northwesterly flow through the middle of
next week. A trough axis will pass to our north tomorrow helping
to drive a cold front into the area with little in the way of
significant impulses in the mean flow progged through the weekend.
This will leave a high amplitude ridge in place across the west
until a low pressure system drops into British Columbia early next
week. This should, in turn, flatten the ridge and may allow our
500 mb flow to become more zonal. Overall, the synoptic pattern
continues to be handled a bit differently each day in guidance.
Overall, the timing of the front appears slightly slower in most
runs today with the NAM among the front runners. The front should
be by our northern border by mid-morning on Friday. Winds behind
the boundary may be a bit stiff with speeds running 20-25 mph. At
present, our northern zones should start to see a respite from the
heat though, given the front's progress during the day, the
southern zones may suffer yet one more day. Post frontal
cloudiness is expected and there remains some risk of showers and
thunderstorms across the area tomorrow. Scattered rain chances
continue early Saturday though the models have really dried things
out during the day. Sunday and Monday continue to have Prospect
for rainfall though what pans out will be so heavily dependent on
mesoscale evolution that it is hard to justify anything more than
broad-brushing pops. Numerical guidance just doesn't handle
weakly forced conditions (their troubles with tropical systems.)
Bottom line--your outdoor event this weekend could get wet--heavy
rain is possible--too soon to tell where. Then again, it might
stay dry the whole weekend in your particular location. At least
it will be cooler. Things should dry out and become hot by mid
next week.

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations