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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Aviation...
tafs will be VFR through 18z cycle. There is a non-zero chance of
a shower or thunderstorm at all locations in the 20z-02z time
frame, but any development will be too isolated for inclusion this
cycle. Jw

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 645 am CDT Sat Jul 30 2016/

Aviation...
a shrinking area of showers and embedded thunderstorms may
persist for a short while beyond 12z at kcds, while klbb and kpvw
remain precipitation free early this morning. Even within
precipitation, VFR will be the dominate Mode. There is an outside
shot of a shower/storm later today into early this evening at any
of the terminals though confidence in a direct impact is not high
enough for inclusion in the tafs. Winds are currently on the
light and variable side but return to a southerly persuasion by
this afternoon.

Update...
convection has been a little slower to diminish/exit the
northeast zones than earlier anticipated. Thus, mentionable pops
have been added to the far southeast Texas Panhandle and eastern
rolling plains beyond 12z. Clouds have also been boosted in the
grids across the central and northern zones through the mid-morning
hours. No other adjustments have been made at this time...though low
shower/storm chances may have to be considered for later today.

Previous discussion... /issued 414 am CDT Sat Jul 30 2016/

Short term...
a small southeastward propagating cluster of showers and
thunderstorms has persisted across portions of the area early this
morning (through 08z). The western extent of this cluster has
struggled to maintain itself on The Caprock as the outflow has far
outrun the deeper convection, though where the outflow was less
progressive we have seen greater storm redevelopment over the
northeast zones of late. This activity may linger several more hours
as it progresses southeastward before diminishing altogether later
this morning. We have maintained a dry forecast after 12z thinking
the better storm chances will shift east of the area by then, though
high-res guidance is a little less certain. We will watch this
closely and adjust the forecast later this morning if needed.
Otherwise, the upper ridging that has been centered over the
southwestern Continental U.S. Much of this past week is progged to begin to
bridge with the ridge across the deep south. This will effectively
weaken and flatten the mid-level flow across the southern rockies
meaning the odds of a repeat performance tonight are very low to
none. However, progged soundings this afternoon do show minimal cin
and 500-1300 j/kg of cape, so a rogue shower/storm can't be ruled
out, but with minimal forcing it is tough to get too excited about
this Prospect. Still, residual boundaries from this early morning
convection could provide enough of a focus to drive a little
activity later today. If convection can redevelop later today think
coverage of about 10 percent would be all that the atmosphere could
muster which is where pops reside this afternoon.

The early morning outflow along with lingering debris clouds may
help keep temperatures in check early on, though highs will likely
still manage to top out a couple of degrees above late July norms. A
mild night will follow and without the prospects of a widespread
cold pool overspreading the region would expect readings a bit
warmer than this morning.

Long term...
upper ridging, albeit weakened, will reside over the area on Sunday,
and should keep all the convective activity off to our north and
west. The upper ridge is then forecast to reposition and build over
Texas and the lower MS Vly early next week, and guidance has been
showing a slow upward trend with heights and temps over West
Texas. There is still a low chance for late evening or early
morning showers across the western South Plains and southwest
Texas Panhandle as an active monsoon pattern is anticipated for
New Mexico, and some of that activity could tend to drift toward
the state line. Monday night and then Thursday night may be the
more favored periods for this possibility. High temps through the
week should be stuck in the middle to upper 90s on The Caprock and
upper 90s to about 103 in the rolling plains. Heading into the
weekend, the GFS and European model (ecmwf) diverge in the synoptic pattern across
the region. The European model (ecmwf) holds on to strong ridging across north and
West Texas as a tropical disturbance moves into south Texas. On
the other hand, the GFS suggests that the upper ridge will begin
to break down as a shortwave digs through the Central Plains. We
will hold on to above average temps for now until if and when
there is better confidence in a pattern change.

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

99/99/13

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