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fxus64 klub 282316 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
616 PM CDT sun may 28 2017

VFR expected through the taf period.


Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CDT sun may 28 2017/

the cold front that moved through late last night and early this
morning was now making its way through the center part of the state.
In its wake breezy northerly winds have knocked the edge off the
temperatures with 19z readings ranging from the middle 70s to lower
80s across the County Warning Area. Sufficient mid-level moisture coupled with weak
elevated instability and upper lift has managed to support a few
elevated showers skirting our far southeast zones, but any light
activity will quickly shift east by early evening. This will lead to
a pleasant evening as winds diminish and with mostly clear skies
lows will drop back into the 40s and 50s by morning. Memorial Day
will be nice too with relatively light winds and highs in the
80s. However a disturbance traversing the southern rockies will
help fire storms over the higher terrain of northern New Mexico
during the afternoon hours. This convection will translate
southeastward and could impact our northwestern zones during the
evening/overnight hours if it can maintain itself. Moisture and
instability will be very limited locally, but the latest nwp have
trended stronger with the upper wave and some of the guidance now
shows a decaying mesoscale convective system approaching and perhaps making it into our
far northwest zones Monday evening. Given this low storm chances
have been expanded slightly to cover approximately the northwest
1/12th of the County Warning Area.

It still appears moisture will be slow to return to West Texas
through much of Tuesday before finally increasing more noticeably
around midweek when a slow-moving shortwave trough is progged to
gradually approach via northwest Mexico and the Desert Southwest.
Low storm chances across the western sections Tuesday will
increase and expand to encompass the entire forecast area Wednesday. The
latest guidance suggests the greatest and most widespread
thunderstorm chances will be from late Wednesday or Wednesday
night into Thursday as the upper disturbance approaches and
passes. Deep layer shear will be relatively tame, but there should
be enough instability to support a few strong to severe storms
during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, precipitable
water values increasing over an inch and slow storm motions would
bring a risk for locally heavy rainfall. After the disturbance
passes late week storm chances will decrease, but sufficient
residual moisture/instability may keep low storm chances in the
forecast. Another upper level weakness could also pass by next
weekend enhancing rain chances, though these details remain
elusive 6+ days out. Regardless, temperatures should remain
fairly close to average through much of the coming week, perhaps a
little below average when cloud cover and rain chances peak in
the middle of the week, and then a bit above average late week
into next weekend if it does indeed dry out somewhat.


Lub watches/warnings/advisories...

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