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fxus64 klub 231126 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
626 am CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

surface winds will veer this morning in advance of a cold front
arriving later this morning. Solutions still support winds
increasing to close to 20 knots at both klbb and kpvw, slightly
less at kcds. Wind should taper later today. Dry and VFR will
dominate. Rmcqueen


Previous discussion... /issued 308 am CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

dry weather will dominate the region for much of this week until
somewhat more eventful weather takes place early this weekend.

A highly amplified trough moving across the center of the country
today will send a cold front through the area this afternoon
replacing the surface ridge that was in place yesterday. A strong
height gradient aloft will keep winds up a bit on Tuesday afternoon
with highest winds over the rolling plains. The surface ridge moving
in behind the front today will not slide out of the region until
Wednesday as it moves southeast. Weak surface pressure troughing
will develop in the wake of the surface ridge on Wednesday and in
advance of an upper trough moving southeastward out of Canada. This
will quickly bring surface winds back to the southwest on Wednesday
and at least part of Thursday before the next front arrives.

The next front arriving during the daytime or morning hours on
Thursday will have more punch to it than the previous couple of
fronts. The surface ridge will not be directly centered on top of
the area Saturday morning but will be close enough to likely create
a widespread freeze for areas on The Caprock. The other issue during
this time frame is the potential for wintry precipitation on Friday
morning. The latest European model (ecmwf) has trended quicker with the trough for
Friday into Saturday which would limit any time for precipitation
production. This quicker moving trough will bring in more large
scale subsidence faster. Any precipitation development will have to
depend on an elevated frontogenesis within a shallow moisture layer.


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