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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
644 am CDT Friday Jul 29 2016

Aviation...
scattered convection sagging southeastward through the Texas
Panhandle early this morning will likely come up short of the
terminals, but it will provide some mid/high debris cloud and
outflow with a northerly wind shift to at least kpvw and kcds.
Winds will return to a southerly component this afternoon. The
best storm chances will likely remain north of the terminals this
afternoon but could approach kcds and kpvw this evening. Chances
of a direct storm impact appear highest at kcds where a prob30
group was included. Outside of any storm influences winds will be
on the lighter side and VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 349 am CDT Friday Jul 29 2016/

Short term...
early morning water vapor imagery shows an anticyclone churning over
the Great Basin with the eastern extent of the ridge nosing into
Texas while broad troughing was in place from the Midwest through
the eastern Continental U.S.. several embedded disturbance were traversing the
broad cyclonic flow including one that was supporting continued
convection from northeast New Mexico into southern/western Kansas
and northwestern Oklahoma as of 08z. The brunt of the lift will be
directed to our northeast though we could see a little activity
attempt to graze the northern/northeast zones later this morning as
it tries to develop southward into a weakening and veering low level jet. Even
if showers/storms don't make it into the forecast area this morning, it will
help push an effective front a bit further south from yesterday.
This frontal zone (likely sitting across the Texas Panhandle this
afternoon) along with the higher terrain of New Mexico and Colorado
will serve as a focus for afternoon and early evening convective
development. Although the storms may initiate north and northwest of
the cwa, northerly mid-level flow atop a 30 knot southerly low level jet will
bring a better shot of storms propagating into the northern zones
Friday evening/night. Similar to what we are seeing well to our
north early this morning, there may be enough instability to support
a few strong to marginal severe storms. Hence, we have maintained a
low thunder mention across the northeastern zones today, expanding
to solid chance pops across the north this evening/tonight, with
lower chances with southern extent.

Minimal change in thicknesses and progged 850 mb temperatures over
yesterday should secure temperatures very similar to Thursday,
slightly to the high side of average.

Long term...
a series of shortwaves moving across the central rockies will
keep the upper ridge over the southwest states fairly suppressed
through Sunday. However, the energetic northwest flow aloft and
baroclinic zone at the surface will remain to our north during
this period, keeping our weather pretty quiet. We can't rule out
some isolated T-storms Saturday and Sunday afternoons - especially
across the western South Plains - but the signals are too weak to
mention in the grids. As we move into next week, and the next
month, the upper ridge will begin to migrate eastward and
strengthen, until it is centered over East Texas by Tuesday. Although
this will keep hot temperatures in the forecast for the area, it
will also direct the sub-tropical moisture plume toward West Texas
as weak troughing develops across the Desert Southwest. We should
see a better chance of late afternoon and evening T-storm activity
across western portions of the forecast area as early as
Wednesday. Unfortunately, it will likely remain hot and dry in the
rolling plains. The upper ridge may shift even farther east into
The Ark-la-tex region late in the week, which may allow temps to
cool down a bit toward average and could also support some rain
chances. The average high temp at Lubbock begins it's slow descent
on Aug 5th (from 93 to 92).

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

23/33/23

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