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fxus63 klsx 172311 

Area forecast discussion...updated aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
611 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Short term... (through late Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

With surface ridge to our east and next system to our northwest,
region to remain in southerly flow through Wednesday. So clear skies
and south winds to persist. Winds will diminish tonight but remain
up enough to keep temperatures a bit warmer than this morning. Will
have lows ranging from upper 30s over the Eastern Ozarks to the mid
to upper 40s over the stl Metro area and portions of Central/
Northeast MO and west central Illinois.

On Wednesday, will see highs between 5 and 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year, in the low to mid 70s.


Long term... (wednesday night through next tuesday)
issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Model solns are in fairly good agreement thru Sat morning. An
approaching weak cdfnt will attempt to drop into the area thurs
morning. However, this fnt is currently expected to remain north of
the County Warning Area. Stronger sly flow returns to the area on Fri as the upper
pattern becomes more amplified with ridging over the County Warning Area. Thru this
period, have trended twd the warmer guidance with mostly clear skies
and sly flow.

Another approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for storms this
weekend. Uncertainty with system is a little higher with some
differences among mdl solns. A leading S/W may help spread showers
across wrn portions of the County Warning Area as early as Sat morning. The European model (ecmwf) is
a much slower outlier compared to the GFS/Gem. While the gefs mean
initially agrees better with the ECMWF, even this soln is faster by
Sat evening. Have generally trended twd a GFS/Gem soln, but have
kept some pops to account for the slower European model (ecmwf) soln. The main
difference is for Sun afternoon and into the evening where the European model (ecmwf)
keeps precip lingering, although, the Gem wud suggest precip
lingering a little longer as well.



Aviation... (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 515 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will provide dry and
VFR flight conditions over the area through Wednesday evening. A
few high clouds the winds will be light overnight out of the
southwest and picking up on Wednesday afternoon.

Specifics for kstl:
dry and VFR conditions will persist through Wednesday evening.
There will be light southwesterly winds overnight before picking
up in speed on Wednesday afternoon.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Saint Louis 48 75 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
Quincy 46 73 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 45 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
Jefferson City 45 75 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
Salem 44 74 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 38 73 50 79 / 0 0 0 0


Lsx watches/warnings/advisories...

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