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000 
FXUS66 KLOX 261006
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 
306 AM PDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak offshore flow will bring a warm and dry conditions with 
mostly clear skies to the area through this week and into the 
weekend. There will be some gusty north to northeast winds at 
times over the region, especially below and through passes and 
canyons. A few nighttime marine clouds may sneak into the L.A.
coastal area by mid week. Temperatures will be a few degrees 
above normal for many areas early this week, then increase to much
above normal for late this week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Skies are clear across SoCal this morning. Dry northerly flow is
overhead. Gradients are still offshore but not as much as they
were 24 hours ago. There are some canyon winds but with no upper
or thermal support they are all sub advisory. Away from the coast
max temps will be similar to yesterdays - maybe a degree or two
cooler in vlys. The coasts will be cooler due to weaker offshore
flow and an earlier sea breeze.

A weak eddy will spin up tonight and its likely (but not certain)
that some marine layer clouds will spread over parts of the LA
county coast as well as Catalina island. The offshore flow will 
also be weaker and this along with slightly lower hgts will knock
a few degrees off of temps everywhere but esp across the coasts.

A weak ridge moves into the area on Thursday and hgts rise to
582DM up from Wednesday's 576 DM. This will lead to an increase in
temps across the vlys and interior sections. The offshore grad
decrease to almost neutral and this trend will counter the
increase in hgts and coastal temps will be similar to Wednesdays.
The weak eddy is forecast to continue and the LA coast will again
see some morning low clouds.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

EC and GFS agree that an upper low will move through the pac NW
Friday and flatten the flow over CA. By Saturday the upper low
will be entering Idaho and cyclonic flow will prevail over the
state. There is no eddy forecast and there is enough offshore flow
to keep the marine clouds away so the forecast calls for clear
skies. It is not too difficult to imagine some low clouds forming
and this will need watching. Whatever the case the very warm temps
that were forecast earlier seem rather unlikely now and max temps
now reflect the cooler forecast.

The EC and GFS do not agree on much at all for the Sunday and 
Monday forecast. The one thing they do agree on is that onshore
flow will return. Think this will be enough to bring some morning
low clouds to the coasts as well as a cooling trend to the area.
Max temps should be several degrees blo normal both Sun and Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0412Z

At 0400Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX.

Overall, good confidence in 06Z TAF package. Weak offshore flow
will keep all sites VFR through the period. There will be some
LLWS/turbulence issues across the valleys and foothills as the
northeasterly flow develops overnight across Ventura and Los
Angeles counties.

KLAX...high confidence in 06Z TAF. There is a 15% chance of east
winds exceeding 7 knots 10Z-18Z. There is a 30% chance of LLWS 
08Z-20Z.

KBUR...high confidence in 06Z TAF. There is a 40% chance of
moderate LLWS 08z-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...

26/200 AM

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday then will
increase to SCA levels Friday and Saturday.

For the Inner Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of Point Sal, winds and seas will remain below
SCA levels through Thursday with a 50% chance of SCA level winds
Friday and Saturday during the afternoon and evening waters. For
the waters south of Point Conception, there is a 30% chance of SCA
level northeast winds from Ventura to Santa Monica this morning.
Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Saturday although there is a 40% chance of SCA level 
winds Saturday afternoon across the western half of the Santa 
Barbara Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(THU-MON)
There will be local fire weather danger through Saturday.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke

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