Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 klox 271029
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
329 am PDT Sat may 27 2017
night and morning low clouds and fog are expected for the coast
and some valleys trough next Friday. Otherwise, clear to party
cloudy skies can be expected through the period. High pressure
will bring warmer temperatures to the area this weekend into
Monday, then low pressure will result in cooler temperatures
Tuesday through late next week.
The marine layer is now at 3500 feet and is capped by a weak
inversion. It will transition to a shallower depth as a ridge
builds in from the west. Due to the weak inversion and strong
offshore trends this morning's stratus deck will not develop
fully. The best cloud coverage will be across the la coast and the
San Gabriel Vly where a weak eddy is helping things along. Unlike
the past few days there will be total clearing and a sunny
afternoon. Max temps will be up 3 to 6 degrees from ydy but will
still be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.
Better weather on tap for Sunday and Memorial Day. The marine
layer will lower to about 1500 feet and the onshore flow will
relax a few more mb. There will be a coastal stratus layer
extending locally into the coastal vlys each night and morning.
There will be total clearing each day. The ridging will allow for
some warming each day. 3 to 6 degrees Sunday and a degree or two
The GFS and the ec agree that fairly dull June like weather is in
store for Southern California for the rest of next week. On Tuesday the ridge
will be replaced by a weak trof that will then persist over the
West Coast through Thursday. This trof along with slightly
increased onshore flow will bring three similar days will night
through morning low clouds and for the coasts and many of the
vlys. Max temps will cool Tuesday and then again Wednesday and the
marine layer deepens a little more. Thursday will be very similar
to Wednesday. Max temps will be a few degrees blo normal through
A Little Ridge will move in Friday and this will smoosh the marine
layer down out of most of the vlys and kick off a warming trend.
At 1005z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 3500 feet. The
top of the inversion was 5700 feet with a temperature of 14
Overall, low to moderate confidence in 12z taf. Cloud coverage
this morning is rather chaotic as cigs form and dissipate and cigs
range from VFR to IFR levels. Any clouds should dissipate by early
this afternoon. For tonight, moderate confidence in return of
stratus to coastal taf sites, but low confidence in timing and
Klax...low confidence in 12z taf. There is a 30% chance of MVFR
cigs 12z-20z. For tonight, high confidence in return of stratus,
but low confidence in timing (+/-4 hours of current 06z forecast)
and flight category (could range from MVFR to ifr).
Kbur...moderate confidence in 12z taf. There is a 20% chance of
MVFR cigs 12z-18z. For tonight, there is a 30% chance that MVFR
cigs could develop.
For the outer waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
For today, Small Craft Advisory (sca) level winds are expected
across pzz673 with a 40% chance of Small Craft Advisory level winds across pzz670
and pzz676. For Sunday into the middle of next week, northwest
winds will increase with Small Craft Advisory level winds likely across all the
outer waters, especially during the afternoon/evening hours.
For the inner waters, moderate confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of Point Sal, winds will hover near Small Craft Advisory levels
each afternoon/evening through Monday (with a 30% chance of Small Craft Advisory
winds developing). For Tuesday/Wednesday, winds will be on the
increase with Small Craft Advisory level winds likely in the afternoon/evening
hours. For the waters south of Point Conception, winds and seas
are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Monday. For Monday
and Tuesday, winds will increase a decent chance of Small Craft Advisory level
winds in the afternoon/evening hours across western sections.
Pz...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
am PDT Sunday for zone 673. (See laxmwwlox).
Hazard potential outlook...(mon-fri)
no significant hazards expected.